Panthers-Bucs Betting Preview: Weather, Trends Point Toward Over/Under Play

Betting odds: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Panthers -3
• Over/Under: 54.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: One of several lopsided games this week, the Panthers were commanding 73% of bets as 3.5-point favorite at the time of writing.

They had been at -4 for a while, but that number attracted sharp action on the Bucs. The line had been pretty stable at 3.5 since then, before bumping down to 3 late Thursday/early Friday.

With nearly 80% of the cash on the under, this total has dropped from 56 to 54.5 (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant

Weather report: Winds of about 12 mph blowing across the field may be the reason behind the cash flow on the under. Historically, divisional games with winds of at least 10 mph have gone under almost 60% of the time, per our Bet Labs data.

Along with Buffalo-Miami, this game will be a rare December 80-degree showdown. Assuming the forecasts hold up, these will be the 11th and 12th such games we have on record dating back to 2003. —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Carolina lost last Sunday to Seattle. Late in the regular season (November-January), teams favored on the road following a loss have gone 133-108-8 against the spread (55%) since 2003.

In division games, these teams have been even more profitable going 55-36-3 (60%) ATS. — John Ewing

This is one of two games in Week 13 that features a home team allowing at least 30 points per game this season (Broncos-Bengals is the other).

Interestingly, the under has historically been a good play in this spot.

In games in November or later that feature a home team that allows at least 30 PPG, the under is 35-17-1 (67.3%), going under the total by 3.1 PPG per Bet Labs. — Evan Abrams

The Panthers and Bucs are both "over" teams as the over is a combined 8 games above .500 in their games in 2018. Tampa Bay is 8-3 to the over while Carolina is 7-4. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Panthers WR D.J. Moore vs. Bucs secondary

The Panthers could be without wide receivers Devin Funchess (back) and Curtis Samuel (hamstring), which means that first-round wide receiver D.J. Moore should get all the usage he can handle.

Since his insertion into the starting lineup in Week 8, Moore has played at least 70% of the team’s snaps in each game, and over the past two weeks, he’s emerged as the team’s top aerial playmaker, turning his 17 targets into a 15-248-1 receiving line.

With his elite combination of size (6-foot-1, 210 pounds), speed (4.42-second 40), agility (6.95-second three-cone) and explosiveness (39.5-inch vertical), Moore has the potential to destroy the Bucs, who rank dead last in pass-defense DVOA.

On top of that, the Bucs secondary has been decimated by injuries. Strong safety Chris Conte (knee, IR) and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (shoulder, IR) are out. Slot corner M.J. Stewart (foot) has been out since Week 9. Free safety Justin Evans (toe) has missed the past two games. And outside cornerback Carlton Davis (knee) exited last week early and is uncertain for this week.

Left corner Brent Grimes is 35 years old and 185 pounds. If Davis is out, he’ll be replaced at right corner by Ryan Smith, a 2016 fourth-rounder who was flamed for an 8-101-1 receiving line on nine targets in his last start (Week 6 at Atlanta).

And filling in for Stewart in the slot is Javien Elliott, an undrafted third-year player who has allowed a 92.9% catch rate and has a 48.5 Pro Football Focus coverage grade this season.

Moore runs about a third of his routes from each of the wide receiver positions. Wherever he lines up this week, he has a significant advantage. — Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Panthers

The only real question mark for the Panthers is wide receiver Devin Funchess (back), who wasn’t able to play last week. He was at least able to get in a limited practice on Thursday, but this could be a game-time decision.

Meanwhile, the Bucs are dealing with injuries to center Ryan Jensen (hamstring), right tackle Demar Dotson (hamstring), running back Peyton Barber (ankle, shoulder) and DeSean Jackson (thumb) … on offense.

The defense is banged up as well, with none of Grimes (knee), Davis (knee), Evans (toe), defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (knee), linebacker Lavonte David (knee), and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (ankle, shoulder) close to 100%.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Christian McCaffrey’s absurd usage for the Panthers gives him one of the highest floors and ceilings on a weekly basis. He leads the Panthers in target share (23.5%) and red-zone opportunities (43.5%), while his 20.4 touches per game ranks fifth among all running backs.

The Bucs have lost some key pieces on their defensive front this season and presently rank as Pro Football Focus’ No. 32 defense against the rush, which should bode well for CMC.

He's a cash-game building block, trailing only Todd Gurley in ceiling projections on the main slate for DraftKings in our FantasyLabs Player Models. —Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bucs-Panthers Under 54.5

This is will be a windy game between divisional opponents and that's a good thing for under bettors.

Also, Tampa Bay’s league-worst 29 turnovers are a huge outlier and bound to regress to the mean. (Turnovers tend to inflate scoring more often than not — touchdown returns, short fields, etc.

Oddsmakers are setting these lines as if Tampa Bay is going to maintain its historic turnover rate, but last week we got to see what happens when the Bucs plays a game more within the normal range of outcomes in regard to turnovers: Its 27-9 victory over the 49ers went under the closing total by nearly 20 points. — Chris Raybon

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.