The Bears (9-3) and Packers (8-3-1) face off today in Week 14 on Sunday, December 7. Kickoff is set for in 4:25 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Packers are 6.5-point favorites on the spread (Packers -6.5; -115), with the over/under set at 44 (-113o / -107u). The Packers are -325 moneyline favorites; the Bears are +255 underdogs.
Let's get into my Bears vs Packers prediction for today's NFC North clash.
Bears vs Packers Predictions, Picks
- Bears vs Packers pick: Bears +6.5
My Bears vs Packers best bet is on Chicago to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bears vs Packers Odds, Lines
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 44 -113o / -107u | +255 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 44 -113o / -107u | -325 |
Bears vs Packers Preview Prediction
The Bears return to action today after one of the marquee statement wins of the NFL season when they dismantled the Eagles in Philadelphia on Black Friday. Chicago not only took control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but the perception of Ben Johnson’s squad undoubtedly shifted to that of a true contender.
Johnson has helped his team generate explosive plays at a similar rate to a year ago, when he was offensive coordinator of the Lions. Both teams featured a ground attack that was the foundation to all of their success. Chicago leads the NFL in chunk gains of 10+ yards this season and the running game now ranks as the 2nd-best league-wide in adjusted line yards per rush.
The Bears only have 14% of their rushes get stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, which is the 4th-lowest rate. Despite the talented front seven of the Packers featuring several household names, they don’t cause much havoc in the running game, stuffing runs at or behind the line of scrimmage at just an 18% rate (22nd).
The Bears controlled the game last week in Philly, but they still struggled to stop the run, allowing the Eagles to run for 5.1 yards per rush. Chicago’s rush defense has surrendered a 6.5% explosive run rate, which ranks 28th in terms of allowing rushes of 15+ yards.
It is more than reasonable that both offenses are able to stay on schedule in this game given their ability to find success on standard downs with the running game; however, I am beginning to have my concerns about whether Josh Jacobs will play another game this season at full health.
Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon returned at cornerback for the Bears defense last week; while A.J. Brown had a spectacular statistical game, it was each player's first game-time action in quite some time.
Keeping Christian Watson in check will be a top priority for the Bears, especially when it comes to the downfield passing attack from Jordan Love.
Green Bay’s rush defense has had its ups and downs this year, and this is a matchup the Bears can still exploit.
The Bears will need to continue their success running the ball if they are going to make this a competitive game, since no defense in football limits opposing passing attacks in the way the Packers do at Lambeau Field. Teams are averaging a league-low 5.3 yards per pass at Green Bay this season.
Now that we can project the success of the running game for both teams, how exactly does that translate to handicapping this game?
You can make the case that a heavy dose of the running game may lead to a quick game that sees that clock running throughout, or you can lean into the offensive rhythm and envision an uptick in points. For this reason, I will avoid the total in this game.
Bears vs Packers Predictions, Spread Picks
Albeit a small sample size, it is rare to see an underdog of 6 or more points with a winning percentage of 75% or better, like the Bears are in this spot.
In fact, over the past five seasons, only five teams have been in this situation this late in the year — November or later. Those teams are 4-1 against the spread.
Even with the Bears becoming a public darling, I am willing to play them at this price given their ability to control the line of scrimmage on offense. Ben Johnson is a mastermind at scheming his players open and creating running lanes.
I expect the Bears to win the time of possession battle and keep this game closer than the line indicates. I’d play this down to +6, but love the value at 6.5 or better.
Pick: Bears +6.5; bet to +6
Bears vs Packers Betting Trends
Bears vs Packers Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. |
| Date: | Sunday, Dec. 7 |
| Time: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
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