Chiefs vs. Bears Betting Odds & Pick: How to Factor In Kansas City’s Motivation on SNF

Chiefs at Bears Betting Odds & Pick

• Odds: Chiefs -6
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: NBC

Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

The Chiefs' hopes of securing a first-round bye are all but lost with the Patriots' win on Saturday. (More on that later.) But with the lowered stakes in mind, how should you bet this spread?

Our experts preview the Sunday Night Football matchup, analyzing whether there's any value on buying or fading Kansas City as a 6-point road favorite.

Sunday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Chiefs

The Chiefs will be without cornerback Morris Claiborne (shoulder) and offensive lineman Andrew Wylie (ankle/shoulder). Some good news: They'll get Damien Williams (ribs) back, and Mecole Hardman (glute) is good to go after popping up on Thursday's injury report.

The Bears have already ruled out offensive lineman Bobby Massie (ankle) and Taylor Gabriel (concussion), and they have two noteworthy players listed as questionable: Cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and defensive lineman Akiem Hicks (elbow). Hicks practiced in full on Friday, so he should be trending toward playing. Amukamara got in limited practices on Thursday and Friday. His injury is slightly more concerning because he missed Week 14 with this hamstring issue. — Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Bears Running Backs vs. Chiefs Defense

Thanks to their 30th-ranking in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, teams have prioritized ball control against the Chiefs, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs as a result.

They've been even worse at defending running back in the passing game, allowing the most receiving yards (805) to opposing backfields — that's an average of 53.7 receiving yards per game to opposing rushers.

This profiles as a strong opportunity for David Montgomery, who ranks inside the top 20 in rushing yards and 13th in rushing attempts. The Bears should also continue to use versatile running back Tarik Cohen, who sits fourth in running back targets (90) and fifth in receptions (67).

With the Chiefs ranking sixth in pass defense DVOA, look for the Bears to attack this mismatch with volume in an effort to keep Patrick Mahomes on the off the field. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Chiefs -5
• Projected Total: 43

One of my favorite aspects of late-season betting is when one game can have an impact on another game’s spread.

That what we're seeing with the Chiefs, who could have been playing for a first-round bye in Sunday night. But with the Patriots beating the Bills on Saturday, it all but ends the Chiefs’ chances of getting a first-round bye. The Patriots would have to lose at home to the Dolphins in Week 17, or the Ravens would have lose each of their last two games at the Browns and vs. Steelers for the Chiefs to secure that first-round bye. And both scenarios seem highly unlikely.

While I don’t think it will result in the Chiefs resting starters, it will significantly lower their motivation to win. Therefore I'll be waiting to snag this once it reaches Bears +6.5. — Sean Koerner

Koerner is 158-119-2 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

PRO System Match

The Bears are an NFL-worst 3-10-1 against the spread this season while the Chiefs have been second-most profitable team, going 9-5 ATS.

Gamblers tend to remember teams that over and bet accordingly, so there's lopsided action on Kansas City. But history tells us Mitchell Trubisky and Co. are undervalued.

Bad ATS teams have been good bets against the spread, and the optimal time to bet them is against good ATS teams late in the season.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 174-108-10 (61.7%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,635 following this strategy. — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Randle: Under 44.5

If the Bears hope to keep this game close, they'll need to do so with a strong running game that limits Mahomes' opportunities. I expect Montgomery and Cohen to enable the Bears to control the ball to avoid the always-present Trubisky turnover factor.

As John mentioned, bad ATS have been historically live late in the season, and the Bears at home always profiles as a close game. While stopping the Chiefs offense is certainly challenging, only one of 14 quarterbacks to face the Bears has finished as a QB1.

I like the Bears to keep this game close, and while the spread isn't high enough to consider them to cover, I like their defense to limit the Chiefs and keep this game under 44.5.

Randle is 238-231-5 (50.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.