Bengals vs Chiefs Odds, Pick, Prediction — NFL Week 13
Jason Hanna/Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce.
- The Chiefs are road favorites against the Bengals in an AFC Championship Game rematch.
- Kansas City is laying 2.5 points against Cincinnati, which looks set to get Ja'Marr Chase back.
- Anthony Dabbundo previews the game and makes his betting pick below.
Bengals vs Chiefs Odds
We'll try to find a Bengals vs. Chiefs pick today, as last year's AFC finalists will meet in Cincinnati on Sunday. Kansas City looks to move closer toward the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC playoffs.
Kansas City lost both meetings to Joe Burrow and the Bengals last year in dramatic fashion, including a shootout in Cincinnati in December that nearly cost them the top seed. The Chiefs were in control of the rematch in Kansas City, but blew a late lead and lost in overtime.
The Chiefs closed -4.5 for that regular season game in Cincinnati, and a year later, Kansas City is laying less than a field goal on the road.
In a year that's seen few good teams at the top of the league and plenty of mediocrity throughout, Chiefs-Bengals has the potential to be a high-scoring game between two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.
Ja'Marr Chase is expected to make his return for the Bengals and Kansas City's offense will have adjustments to counter Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo's second-half playoff masterclass. The Chiefs shouldn't be laying less than a field goal.
Bengals vs. Chiefs Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bengals and Chiefs match up statistically:
Bengals vs. Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
Anarumo outfoxed both Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the second half of the AFC Championship Game. The Bengals exclusively rushed just three defensive linemen and dropped eight into coverage. The shell coverage was designed to take away deep plays and force Mahomes to work underneath. The extra defender in coverage kept Mahomes in the pocket and he made a few questionable decisions, forcing throws into tight coverage.
Kansas City effectively had a bye last week when it played Bryce Perkins and the Los Angeles Rams at home. The Chiefs really struggled in the red zone, but you have to assume Reid and most of the staff had one eye on preparing for Burrow and the Bengals.
Bet Kansas City vs. Cincinnati at FanDuel
This is the last game on the Chiefs' schedule against an AFC opponent that will make the playoffs. Despite losing Tyreek Hill in the offseason, Kansas City hasn't skipped a beat on offense. The Chiefs offense is first in EPA/play and first in success rate.
Mahomes has been a third-down magician for most of his career, but the Chiefs offense is also number one in series conversion rate and second in early down success rate. The Bengals defense is slightly above average in terms of coverage grading and EPA allowed, but they've also been carved up by mediocre to average quarterbacks throughout the season. If Kenny Pickett can post 30 points and Andy Dalton can score 26 points on this defense, Mahomes should be able to put plenty of points on the board.
Mahomes has been stellar throughout his career when priced as an underdog or favored by three or fewer points. The Chiefs defense has often been mediocre throughout his tenure, allowing plenty of late backdoor opportunities. His offense is also always good at ball control in the final minutes when trying to prevent the opponent from getting the ball back.
The Chiefs are 17-5-1 with Mahomes at quarterback when -3 or shorter. And if you look deeper into both of those meetings last season, the Bengals engineered multiple improbable double-digit comebacks. The secondary has taken a significant step forward from terrible to just mediocre in 2022 and that should limit the Bengals ability to go nuclear on offense and catch up from behind.
Kansas City should have won both meetings between these two teams last season and the Bengals continue to get too much love in the market for last year's Super Bowl run. Chase will improve the offense, but the Chiefs defensive pressure rate has improved this season and Burrow still has the same sack problems he did last year.
The Bengals defense won't be able to get pressure on Mahomes with its standard pass rush. Cincinnati is 21st in pass rush win rate and Anarumo will probably need to scheme up pressure if he wants his defense to get anywhere near Mahomes.
If this line gets to three, I'm passing on the matchup. But Chase's return has bumped this under the key number and I like the Chiefs at -2.5.
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