Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Odds & Picks: L.A. Have A Chance on MNF?

Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Odds

• Odds: Chiefs -4.5
• Over/Under: 52.5
• Location: Mexico City
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of Sunday evening.

The Chiefs and Chargers will take the field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City for a major AFC West divisional showdown on Monday night. If the Chargers want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they'll need to limit Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs.

Our experts warn against the popular belief that the two teams will rack up points and wonder whether the Chargers pass defense can effectively limit Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the Kansas City offense.

Chiefs-Chargers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Chargers

The most notable injury for the Chargers is offensive lineman Russell Okung, who hasn’t practiced all week due to a groin injury. Since his return three weeks ago, he’s been the Chargers’ best pass blocker.

The Chiefs will continue to be without two defensive linemen in Alex Okafor (ankle) and Emanuel Ogbah (pectoral), but they will get left tackle Eric Fisher back for the first time since Week 2. Also of note, Damien Williams (personal) is listed as questionable. Head coach Andy Reid said Williams “should” be traveling with the team to Mexico City for the game, so it sounds like he should play. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Sunday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Chiefs Passing Attack vs. Chargers Pass Defense

Despite battling injuries throughout the year, Kansas City is again atop the rankings in offensive pass efficiency. The Chiefs are 53% better than the average NFL passing offense. Los Angeles is still awaiting the return of safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips. Chargers’ defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will need to create his best defensive game plan of the season to slow the aerial attack of Kansas City.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is coming off his best performance of the season with 446 passing yards and three touchdowns in their Week 10 loss at Tennessee. Mahomes’ top two targets, wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, accounted for 18 receptions, 232 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

The Chargers have specifically struggled with Hill, who is averaging 5.3 receptions, 95 receiving yards, one touchdown, and 21.1 fantasy points per game in his last four games against the Chargers.

Los Angeles must also defend the Chiefs’ running backs in the passing game. They have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (461) and second-most receiving touchdowns (four) to opposing running backs.

The Chargers are in the midst of their annual late-season push, but they will need to stop the NFL’s best passing game if they hope to garner a huge AFC West win. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Chiefs -4
• Projected Total: 52

I’m aligned exactly with this spread and total.

This will be just the fourth game played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, which is more than 7,000 feet above sea level, presenting some considerations. As we know with Mile High Stadium in Denver, the high elevation allows the ball to travel farther, which can allow for longer field goal attempts vs. a punt. It can also cause defenses to tire quicker as they’re unable to catch their breath as easily, enticing offenses to run a faster pace as a result. These factors could favor the over.

I’ll likely make some in-game bets in The Action Network app, so be sure to follow me to get alerts as I make my bets. — Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 820-726-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it has been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It is just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 180-109-3 (62.0%) ATS since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,206 following this strategy.

Oddsmakers have set the Chargers-Chiefs total at 53. Bettors are expecting a shootout, but history suggests the smart play is on the under. — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Matthew Freedman: Under 52.5

Both teams can score points, but over the past six weeks, the Chiefs have four losses that highlight their vulnerability against the run. They are No. 31 in defensive run success rate (55%). I imagine that the Chargers will give a lot of carries to Melvin Gordon III in order to control the ball and keep the Chiefs offense on the sideline.

And when the Chiefs have the ball, they might struggle more than usual. Their offensive strength is the passing game, but as I mention in my Week 11 WR/CB piece, wide receiver Tyreek Hill has a tough matchup this week. In the slot, he will face All-Pro cornerback Desmond King II, and when he splits out wide he will frequently face Casey Hayward Jr.

With the Chargers slowing down the game on offense and providing just enough resistance on defense, I like the under to 52 points.

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