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Christian McCaffrey Player Props: Expert Fades CMC in Super Bowl

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Christian McCaffrey Player Props: Expert Fades CMC in Super Bowl

Sunday, Feb. 11
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 4.5 Receptions (+110)

Christian McCaffrey is a deserved MVP finalist and now has the opportunity to play in his first-ever Super Bowl. His presence has taken the San Francisco 49ers offense to another level. Head coach Kyle Shanahan and his staff have always been able to orchestrate a great run game with their incredible schemes, but now they have the most talented running back in the league at their disposal.

This has led to a historic season for McCaffrey. He has 90-plus rushing yards in eight of his last 10 games, including both postseason games. More importantly, McCaffrey is finding the end zone at an insane rate. He has 21 touchdowns in 18 games this season, including two touchdowns in each of his two playoff game. That success has McCaffrey at an insane line of -225 to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl.


For more Christian McCaffrey player props (including a CMC Anytime Touchdown pick), Super Bowl predictions, check out the stories below!


The good news for McCaffrey is that the Kansas City Chiefs are exploitable on the ground. Their secondary is elite and has shut down opposing passing attacks, but they've really struggled against the run, ranking 27th in rush defense DVOA. McCaffrey should get plenty of carries and have a good amount of success.

It’s hard to bet a McCaffrey under due to the massive public market that is inclined to bet overs on the best players. McCaffrey’s lines have ballooned with no value in them. Despite how high some of those lines are, when it comes to him scoring a touchdown or racking up rushing yards, I don’t want to get in his way.

However, I think McCaffrey won’t be as involved in the passing game. You can currently get McCaffrey to go under 4.5 receptions at plus money. McCaffrey is averaging just 4.3 catches per game this season and the Chiefs defense is in the top half of the league when it comes to defending running backs through the air, so you would expect that number to shrink even more against an above-average defense.

49ers Player Props: Brock Purdy | Brandon Aiyuk | George Kittle | Jauan Jennings | Best Bets: Player Props


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Christian McCaffrey Player Props

Betting Picks & Predictions

I expect Deebo Samuel to cannibalize a lot of the targets that McCaffrey has gotten in the past. For example, McCaffrey tied his season high in receptions (seven) against the Packers in the Divisional Round when Samuel was out for the game. Several other games where McCaffrey had a high target share came when Samuel wasn't on the field.

McCaffrey’s receptions average, which is already too high for this prop, might be a bit inflated due to the time Samuel missed. McCaffrey should get a huge workload out of the backfield against this vulnerable Chiefs run defense, but on passing downs, expect Samuel and George Kittle to be the short-pass options for Brock Purdy.

Ultimately, McCaffrey only had more than five targets in six of his 18 games this season. In three of those six games, Samuel left the game early or missed it entirely. With Samuel expected to get a ton of snaps and touches, McCaffrey should stay at that mark of five targets or fewer, which gives you a great chance for him to go under his receptions total.

I am taking McCaffrey under 4.5 receptions, which is at plus-money across the board, and I would bet it down to +100.

Best Bet: Christian McCaffrey Under 4.5 Receptions (+110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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