The Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) and Baltimore Ravens (6-5) will face off in NFL Week 13. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. EST from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md. The game will broadcast live on NBC/Peacock.
The Ravens are favored by -7 on the spread (Ravens -7), with the over/under set at 51.5 points. The Ravens are -350 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Bengals are +280 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 13 NFL Thanksgiving preview and Bengals vs Ravens prediction.
Bengals vs Ravens Prediction
- Bengals vs Ravens pick: Ravens Team Total Over 30.5 (+100); bet to 31.5
My Bengals vs Ravens best bet is on the Ravens to score more than 30.5 points. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bengals vs Ravens Odds
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 51.5 -111o / -110u | +280 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 51.5 -111o / -110u | -350 |
Bengals vs Ravens NFL Thanksgiving Preview
The Bengals travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that has now had star QB Lamar Jackson back for his fifth game after sustaining a hamstring injury.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are expecting the return of QB Joe Burrow in a must-win game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive; they are currently a 25-1 longshot to make the playoffs.
The weather is expected to be cold at 35 degrees, with winds right around 10 mph, so I don't expect there to be much impact on the game total.
My focus here will be on the Ravens' side of the ball as Burrow's return is a bit of a wild card. Typically, Burrow benefits from being able to throw outside the pocket, but there's a lot of uncertainty if he'll use his legs as much, or if he does have the same mobility and effectiveness outside the pocket after coming off surgery for turf toe.
Meanwhile, I think the market is down on the Ravens after a lackluster performance in which they were outgained in yards by the Jets.
However, looking at the four Ravens games since Jackson's return, I'm encouraged that this Ravens offense has pretty much picked up where they left off before Jackon's injury.
The Ravens haven't scored more than 28 points in those four games, but there's been a bit of bad luck as they had Expected Scores (which power our Luck Rankings) of 30 points against Miami, 32.5 points against Minnesota, and 26 points against a stout Cleveland defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA.
When analyzing these games, we need to look at a bigger sample size than one stinker against the Jets, but even factoring that in, the Ravens have averaged an Expected Score of 27.1 points against four defenses that come in around 1% worse than league average by DVOA.
Now, they face the Bengals defense that is not only last in defensive DVOA, but are among the worst defenses of all time by that metric.
One might look back to last week and note the Bengals held the Patriots to 26 points, but diving under the hood, it was a lot worse for Cincy than it appears.
First, the Patriots had two second-half drives end at the Bengals' 1-yard line and came away with just three points, compared to an expectation of over 12 points in those spots.
Second, New England lost two key pieces of its offensive line, both on the left side. The Patriots' No. 4 overall draft pick in this year's draft, LT Will Campbell, suffered an MCL injury and missed the latter 40% of the game, while third-round LG Jared Wilson was injured on the third play of the game.
With those injuries, Drake Maye was pressured on a whopping 43.6% of his dropbacks against a team that generates the fourth-lowest pressure rate over expectation (PROE) in the NFL.
Well, the Ravens aren't the Patriots, and have a fully healthy offensive line and face a Bengals defense that ranks 19 spots worse than the average of the four defenses they have faced since Jackson's return in PROE, including eight spots worse than the worst of those four, the New York Jets.
Further, Jackson has an incredible matchup, with an efficiency around 16.5% better against the defensive coverages the Bengals tend to use than the average coverages he's faced this year.
Look for Jackson to rely heavily on his TE duo of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, especially with WR Rashod Bateman questionable after being limited in practice all week and missing the last two games.
The Bengals are dead last against the TE position, allowing 89.4 yards per game to TEs, a full 16 yards above second-worst Jacksonville.
Bengals vs Ravens Prediction, Betting Analysis
Our schedule-adjusted Expected Scores, which power our Luck Rankings, have the Ravens close to 34 points, which makes sense, knowing the potency of their offense and the fact that the Bengals are giving up 32.7 points per game and 29 points by Expected Score per game despite facing the eighth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league.
Now, the Bengals face a Ravens offense that's averaged an Expected Score of 27.9 points in eight Jackson starts, despite facing a schedule of opposing defenses that would rank as the eighth hardest in the NFL.
Pick: Ravens Team Total over 30.5 (+100)
Spread
I'm passing on both sides of the spread.
Moneyline
The value is nowhere near where I'd like it to be so I'm also passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I plan on backing the over for the Ravens' team total.
