Colts vs. Chiefs Odds & Picks: Trust Mahomes As Big Sunday Night Football Favorite?

Colts vs. Chiefs Odds & Picks: Trust Mahomes As Big Sunday Night Football Favorite? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: T.Y. Hilton, Patrick Mahomes

  • Our experts analyze the Chiefs-Colts Sunday Night Football odds and make their picks.
  • You'll find a comparison to Sean Koerner's projected spread and over/under, and more.

Colts at Chiefs Odds & Picks

  • Chiefs Spread: -11
  • Colts Spread: +11
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBC

Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts in what the market expects to be a high-scoring affair on Sunday Night Football, earning the highest total of Week 5.

The Chiefs are also one of the biggest favorites of the week at -11.

So where’s the value on the spread and/or total? Our experts break down every angle of this primetime showdown, featuring a staff pick and Sean Koerner’s projected odds.

Colts-Chiefs Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Chiefs

The Chiefs will continue to be without Tyreek Hill (collarbone), but he could be back soon after getting in limited practices this week.

Damien Williams (knee) was listed as questionable despite practicing in full every day and Andy Reid saying they expect him to play (a situation in which the “probable” tag would come in handy … looking at you NFL).

The Colts continue to be a mess on the injury front. They could be down rookie CB Rock Ya-Sin (hip), who is listed as questionable, but didn’t practice on Friday. They already ruled out S Clayton Geathers (concussion) and LB Darius Leonard, who still hasn’t cleared concussion protocol.

On the offensive side, Marlon Mack (ankle) is listed as questionable, but practiced in full on Friday so is expected to suit up. T.Y. Hilton (quad) got in limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday and is trending toward playing. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Saturday. See our Injury Report for updated statuses.

Biggest Sunday Night Football Mismatch

Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Colts Pass Defense

You might point to the Colts’ powerful rushing attack as the biggest advantage — they are playing an abysmal Chiefs run defense that’s allowing a league-worst 5.9 yards per carry. And while Indy should have some success on the ground, Mack isn’t fully healthy, and the Chiefs should be able to load the box against a one-dimensional Colts offense that’s dealing with injuries at receiver.

Even with a healthy Hilton, the Colts just don’t have much of a downfield passing attack with Jacoby Brissett under center. The Colts are averaging only 6.2 yards per attempt (27th in the NFL).

Even though the Colts’ dominant run-blocking offensive line should get push up front, this has blowout written all over it. In a matchup of two poor run defenses, the huge discrepancy in talent and ability of the Chiefs’ offense should reign supreme.

The Chiefs are averaging a league-high 9.5 yards per pass. How good is that? If they maintained that level, it would be the single-best mark since at least 2000. There have been only 12 teams that even averaged more than eight yards per attempt this century, including the 2018 Chiefs squad. None eclipsed the 9.0 mark and only four averaged more than 8.5.

Travis Kelce
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Travis Kelce

While I don’t think the Chiefs can maintain their current pace, this isn’t the week to bet on that number dropping against a Colts defense that will be without both of its starting safeties in Malik Hooker — who is so important to everything they want to do — and Geathers. Things could get really ugly if their best player on the front seven, Leonard, also can’t suit up.

Bottom line is this Colts pass defense, which will play as much Cover 2 as anyone, is just not the same without Hooker.

You can expect Patrick Mahomes to take full advantage up the seam with Travis Kelce and with many deep shots throughout the game. His great pass-blocking offensive line, which his graded second overall by Pro Football Focus, will give him plenty of time to exploit the backend of the Colts defense. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chiefs -10
  • Projected Total: 55.5

Everything about this matchup favors the over.

The Chiefs should impose their will on an Indy defense that’s been disappointing, and Brissett has done a much better job replacing Andrew Luck in this offense than we saw in 2017. Brissett has much better coaching and talent around him to put up points if needed. This week they’ll need him to be much more aggressive in order to keep up with the Chiefs.

Unfortunately, the market is completely aware of the scoring environment of this matchup and there isn’t much value in the current total of 56. If the Colts happen to take an early lead, it’ll amplify the over, in which case I’ll consider an in-game bet. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Chiefs 1H -7

NFL double-digit favorites aren’t my cup of tea, but this is KC or nothing in a primetime game in front of what should be a raucous Arrowhead crowd.

This first-half line assumes the Chiefs would only be about a 4-point favorite over the Colts on a neutral field. And given the key injuries Indy is dealing with right now, I think that’s too low.

There’s certainly a lot of backdoor risk at a full-game spread of 11 against a subpar Chiefs defense, so I’ll be investing in their first-half spread of -7.

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