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The Tennessee Titans (0-5) take on the Indianapolis Colts (2-3) today in NFL Week 6 action. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Colts are 7-point favorites over the Titans on the spread, with the over/under set at 44 total points. Indianapolis is a -329 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Tennessee is a +265 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Titans vs Colts predictions for today's Week 6 AFC South battle.
Titans vs Colts Prediction
- Titans vs Colts pick: Titans +7
My Titans vs. Colts best bet is on the Titans to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Titans vs Colts Odds
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 44.5 -112o / -108u | +270 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 44.5 -112o / -108u | -340 |
- Titans vs Colts Moneyline: Titans +270, Colts -340
- Titans vs Colts Total: 44.5
- Titans vs Colts Spread: Titans +7 (-115), Colts -7 (-105)
Titans vs Colts NFL Week 6 Preview
The Titans may be near the bottom of any NFL power rankings you come across, but there is plenty of reason to believe they can compete with the Colts — and potentially pull the outright upset today.
Indianapolis shouldn’t be a touchdown favorite against any NFL team, even in a game it is projected to win on home turf.
Let’s start with what the Colts do well: run the football.
Tennessee is sixth in the league defending the run on a per-carry basis despite playing from behind consistently. Even in a blowout loss to the Texans a week ago, the Titans limited the run effectively. It is evident they are playing the run more soundly this season — the Texans averaged just 2.9 yards per carry on 27 rushing attempts.
In Week 4, Derrick Henry carried the ball 23 times against the Titans but averaged just 3.2 yards per rush. The Colts' Jonathan Taylor is an excellent back, but even he will struggle to gain consistent yardage if he is hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, something that has happened on 50% of his carries this season.
The offensive line play for the Colts has been subpar through five games. Center Tanor Bortolini has played considerably worse this season than last, grading out 28th out of 34 qualifying players at the position, per Pro Football Focus.
His matchup with Jeffery Simmons is one he simply cannot win on his own. Bortolini will need constant help with double teams in his attempt to negate the havoc Simmons can create.
The issue for the Colts' front is that Simmons has John Franklin-Myers as his interior running mate. Both Franklin-Myers and Simmons rank inside the top 10 at the position this season in rush defense grade, per PFF.
Running the ball is crucial for the Colts because their air attack lacks an explosive element without Alec Pierce in the lineup.
In total, Indy ranks 30th in expected points added (EPA) as a passing offense. Daniel Jones has yet to crack seven yards per attempt in any game this season.
Jones has a 4.6% turnover-worthy throw rate in comparison to a minuscule 2.0% big-time throw rate.
Also, 19.9% of Jones' passes have been deemed off-target. That puts him in a tier with other quarterbacks who lead the league in inaccurate passes, with the only discernible difference being that the handful of other signal callers joining him in that tier have a considerably higher average depth of target.
Cam Ward’s performance to begin his second season with the Titans hasn’t been very encouraging. However, this is by far the easiest matchup he has had this year.
Ward’s passer rating from a clean pocket sits at a respectable 96.1. It is pressure that gives him fits. The good news for the Tennessee offense here is that no team struggles to generate pressure more than Indianapolis.
The Colts’ pressure rate of 23% ranks last in the NFL. In fact, the gap between their pressure rate and the Cardinals' pressure rate — the team that ranks 31st — is the same margin between the team ranking 14th (Commanders) and Arizona.
Ward will have time to operate inside the pocket and the likelihood of him committing a game-changing turnover diminishes greatly in an environment in which he should be protected.
In addition to lacking a pass rush, the Colts also rank last in the league in EPA/play when defending the run this season. Opposing rushers are averaging 2.4 yards before contact per rush against (31st).
Titans vs Colts Prediction, Betting Analysis
You don’t get many opportunities like this when diving into the ultra-tight market that is the NFL.
We are able to back a team with a full touchdown worth of points in a divisional game where they are playing an opponent near the bottom of the league in passing offense, rushing defense, and pass rush production.
There are a few books offering the Titans at +7 with added juice of just a few cents. I’d be willing to take the +7 at -120 or better; otherwise, +6.5 at -110 will suffice in getting us to the betting window to cash our ticket.
Pick: Titans +7 (-120 or better, DraftKings)
