Broncos-Chiefs Betting Preview: Weather Could Be a Factor at Arrowhead

Broncos-Chiefs Betting Preview: Weather Could Be a Factor at Arrowhead article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chris Harris, Tyreek Hill

Betting odds: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Spread: Chiefs -10
  • Over/Under: 53.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: At the time of writing, 61% of bettors are laying the points with Kansas City, yet 72% of dollars wagered are taking Denver.

Should these splits continue, don’t be surprised to see the sharps coming in on the Broncos, especially if the market moves to +10.5 (see live betting data here). — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: The Chiefs have opened the regular season 7-0 against the spread. Kansas City is one of just three teams since 1990 to cover the spread in each of their first seven games of the season.

The previous two teams were the 2008 Tennessee Titans, who started 7-0 straight up /ATS and finished the season 13-3 SU/12-4 ATS, and the 2007 New England Patriots, who started 7-0 SU/ATS and finished the season 16-0 SU/10-6 ATS. — Evan Abrams

Double-digit underdogs against division opponents are 111-82-5 (58%) ATS since 2003, according to our Bet Labs data.

These teams perform best in the first half of the season. In Weeks 1-8, underdogs in this spot are 33-16-2 (67%) ATS. In Weeks 9-17 they are 68-58-2 (54%). — Evan Abrams

Denver beat Arizona 45-10 on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. The Broncos are just the second team to win its previous game by 30 or more points and then be listed as a double-digit underdog since 2003.

The previous team, the Lions in Week 6 of 2010, covered the spread. — John Ewing 

Believe it or not, the Broncos have a +1 point differential. Since 2003, teams with a positive point differential that opened as a double-digit underdog against a divisional opponent are 6-13 SU (+9.3 units) and 11-6-2 ATS, covering the spread by more than a field goal per game. — Evan Abrams

Wind is expected to be a factor at Arrowhead Stadium this weekend (15-17 mph).

Since 2003, when the wind is swirling at least 15 mph at Arrowhead, the under is 8-4, including a clean 4-0 since 2010, with fewer than 45 combined points scored in all four games.

This fits league-wide trends, as well, which show unders cash at a higher rate in windy games. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Andy Reid vs. Vance Joseph

I actually think record against the betting lines says a lot about a head coach, because the mark of a good coach is getting his team to exceed expectations.

Reid and Joseph couldn’t be more opposite: Reid is 133-110-4 ATS since 2003; Joseph is 6-15-2 in his two seasons in charge of the Broncos.

The Chiefs have gone over their win total for five years and counting, while Joseph’s squad fell three wins short of its total in his first season,

Reid and his staff make sharp moves like replacing the conservative Alex Smith with laser show Patrick Mahomes. Joseph & Co. tried to sell Denver as having a quarterback problem, even though he inherited a team that went 9-7 with Trevor Siemian.

Joseph even pales in comparison to Reid at replay challenges: While Reid has hit 46% (52-60) in his career, Joseph is still looking to get a second successful challenge; he sits at 1-6 (16%) lifetime. — Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Chiefs

The Broncos are dealing with a plethora of injuries on defense, as safety Darian Stewart (neck) could join outside linebacker Shane Ray (ankle/wrist) on the bench. Safety Dymonte Thomas (chest), cornerback Adam Jones (leg), linebacker Brandon Marshall (knee) and outside linebacker Von Miller (ankle) also aren’t 100%.

The Chiefs are expected to once again be without safety Eric Berry (heel) and outside linebacker Justin Houston (hamstring), while center Mitch Morse remains in the concussion protocol.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Broncos have featured stud corner Chris Harris Jr. in the slot on 60% of his snaps this season, but haven’t asked him to consistently travel with a single receiver.

It seems unlikely this would change vs. the Chiefs, considering the Broncos have largely slowed down Tyreek Hill (as a receiver) during their matchups.

Overall, Hill has posted 9-54-0, 2-38-0, 0-0-0 and 9-52-1 receiving lines in four career games against the Broncos.

Hill has averaged 22.8 DraftKings PPG with a +9.5 Plus/Minus on the road during his career compared to just 13.1 PPG and a -0.6 Plus/Minus at Arrowhead. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Broncos +10

Well, well, well. We meet again, Chiefs. I read a lot of people saying they are afraid to fade the Chiefs because they lost money fading them earlier in the season. Well, that should not impact your decision one bit.

You should simply adjust your numbers and then bet against or for a certain team based on the number. Bet numbers, not teams. And I will continue to bet numbers against the Chiefs as long as my numbers tell me to do so.

I still don’t buy anything about this Chiefs defense, especially against the run. K.C. is allowing 5.2 yards per rush, which ranks 30th in the NFL.

The core of their defense up the middle is extremely weak at all three levels. And if there’s one thing the Broncos can do well, it’s run the ball. Denver actually ranks second in the NFL at 5.1 yards per rush behind a very productive run-blocking offensive line.

The passing game won’t be a lost cause, especially if Denver can create play-action opportunities for Case Keenum.

Three other factors to consider:

  • These penalty issues will eventually catch up with the Chiefs (30th in the NFL with 8.3 penalties per game).
  • The wind might cause this to be lower scoring that many think, which would make the +10 even more valuable (high winds would obviously also hurt the K.C. offense more, as well).
  • This is a good situational spot for the Broncos, who have had a few extra days to prepare.

At the end of the day, this line is just too high. — Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.