The Denver Broncos (10-2) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) meet in NFL Week 14 today. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Broncos are 8-point favorites on the spread (Broncos -8; -112), with an over/under of 40.5 (-110o / -109u). Denver is a -460 moneyline favorite; Las Vegas is a +350 underdog.
Let's get into my Broncos vs Raiders prediction for Sunday, December 7.
Broncos vs Raiders Predictions & Picks
- Broncos vs Raiders pick: Raiders +8.5 (-110)
My Raiders vs. Broncos best bet is on Las Vegas to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -112 | 40.5 -110o / -109u | -460 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -108 | 40.5 -110o / -109u | +350 |
Broncos vs Raiders Preview
Sadly, I'm on the Raiders and their miserable offense in this AFC West tilt.
While I'm not looking forward to watching Geno Smith take sacks behind Las Vegas' pitiful (and battered) offensive line against the Broncos, I had to take the +8 in a game I project slightly under a touchdown.
Las Vegas can't block anybody, especially since losing stud left tackle Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson in the interior.
As a result, rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has had no room to run and Smith has no time in the pocket.
I'm not even sure what the interior of the offensive line will look like today with the potential return of Jordan Meredith, who missed last week's game due to injury.
Does Raiders' head coach Pete Carroll keep Alex Cappa at center and/or go with rookie Caleb Rogers at right guard again? I have no clue.
Regardless, it won't be pretty — although the interior won't have to deal with Denver starting defensive tackle D.J. Jones, who is sidelined with an ankle injury.
What is the hope for the Raiders offense?
Brock Bowers and potentially garbage time scores. There's not much else to get excited about.
I'd have to imagine we have reached the bottom of the market for the Raiders offense, which I don't think can play any worse.
If you're looking for a more optimistic view, this will mark the second game for new play-caller Greg Olson, who did some better things schematically than the departed Chip Kelly. Maybe there's a jump in this second game.
More importantly, this Denver defense might show some extreme fatigue at some point following a road overtime victory last Sunday night against the Commanders in which it played over 90 snaps.
It's possible that results in a less potent pass rush.
There has been a noticeable decline in Denver's pressure rate in recent games. Over the first eight weeks of the season, the Broncos had the league's second-highest pressure rate — they have dipped dramatically to 26th since Week 9.
I won't blow any more smoke about this pathetic Raiders offense. It should be a struggle throughout.
However, the same can be said for Denver, which only put up 10 points when these teams met earlier this season in a horrendous situational spot for the Raiders, who traveled to altitude on a short week following an overtime game in which its defense saw the field for over 90 snaps.
The roles are reversed this time around.
Las Vegas doesn't have the most talented defensive roster outside of Maxx Crosby (who should play with a knee injury), but it is well-schemed under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.
For the pieces Graham has to work with, it's pretty impressive this group ranks 17th in DVOA.
The Raiders do a respectable job against the run and excel at limiting explosive plays through the air with one of the league's most zone-heavy stop units.
That's a critical point against Bo Nix, who has struggled mightily against zone compared to man this season.
Nix has been a top-10 quarterback in terms of success rate against man coverage; he is a bottom-3 passer against zone.
The Raiders will make Nix methodically march down the field, which can be a struggle for the second-year pro, who still has accuracy and consistency issues.
Plus, the Broncos rushing attack has just not been as efficient since losing JK Dobbins and turning to rookie RJ Harvey.
Nix deserves credit for his clutch play in the fourth quarters of games this year, but you can't ignore his lackluster performances over the first three quarters, where he ranks 27th in Success Rate and 28th in CPOE.
Those numbers get even worse if you remove his output vs. two historically bad defenses.
Broncos vs Raiders Predictions, Week 14 Best Bet
Ultimately, I'm willing to back the home divisional underdog at over a touchdown against a potentially fat-and-happy (and maybe fatigued) Denver team in what projects to be a very low scoring affair where points should come at a premium.
The Broncos have struggled to play with margin, especially away from home — although they didn't even do that vs. these same Raiders last month.
Just take a look at Denver's results outside of Mile High:
- L by 1 at Colts
- L by 3 at Chargers
- W by 4 at Eagles
- W by 2 vs Jets
- W by 3 at Texans
- W by 1 at Commanders
The Broncos are 4-2 away from home with a +6 point differential despite playing three backup quarterbacks.
All four of their wins have come by four points or fewer with +6 point differential.
Hold your nose and hope Geno Smith doesn't get sacked 13 times.
Notable Trends: Since 2003, home divisional underdogs of more than a TD have covered at a 56.3% clip. When the total closes below that number, those home 'dogs have gone 42-21-9 ATS (70%), covering by over a TD per game on average.
Broncos vs Raiders Best Bet
- Raiders +8.5 (-110)
Broncos vs Raiders Betting Trends
Broncos vs Raiders Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev. |
| Date: | Sunday, Dec. 7 |
| Time: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
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