Lions-Packers Betting Preview: Weather Will Play a Big Role at Lambeau Field

Betting odds: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Packers -9
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: The market is posting a slew of numbers for this game, ranging anywhere from Packers -7.5 to -9.

Green Bay is getting nearly 70% of bets and cash, and there has been a bit of sharp activity on each side (check out live data here). However, clearly not enough to push this line out of this insignificant range of more than -7 and less than -10. — Mark Gallant

Weather report: Green Bay is going to have some very Green Bay-ish late December weather. Temperatures will be a bit below freezing, but wind speeds should play more of a factor.

If the forecast of 17 mph winds holds up, it would be tied for the windiest NFL game of the year — which was the snowy game in Green Bay when the Cardinals booted Mike McCarthy out of town. — Gallant

Trends to know: Matthew Stafford has played in 11 games in his career where winds were gusting above 10 mph on average, and he is 2-9 against the spread, failing to cover the spread by 4.9 points per game.

In three of those 11 games, Stafford faced the Packers in Lambeau and he is 0-3 straight up and ATS. — Evan Abrams

As Mark noted, it’ll be cold at Lambeau Field with an average temperature of 26 degrees during the game. Many bettors think cold temperatures impact scoring but that’s not true.

Since 2003, in games played in 32 degree or colder temperatures the over has gone 142-121-5 (54%). If the game has a low over/under, like Packers-Lions, the over has performed even better. — John Ewing

Draft order: The Packers' comeback win over the Jets last week proved costly, as they only have a small chance to get a top-10 draft pick now (Green Bay currently has the 14th selection).

Detroit sits at fifth overall entering Week 17, holding the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over the other four teams bunched at 5-10. A loss would lock the Lions into a top-five pick. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Davante Adams vs. Lions secondary

Judging from last week, Aaron Rodgers obviously still cares about this season. And I’m willing to bet he also cares about getting the ball to his No. 1 WR Davante Adams early and often — especially since Adams is only 134 yards away from setting the single-season Packers receiving record (Jordy Nelson 1519).

Adams has been one of the best receivers in the NFL this season and should end the season with a bang against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Just take a look at some of these stats:

• 7.6 yards per attempt allowed (28th)
• 32nd overall defense DVOA
• 32nd pass defense DVOA
• 32nd against No. 1 receivers

Assuming he is relatively healthy, I expect Adams to break the record on Sunday in one of the most favorable matchups of the slate. And I’m just not sure dome Detroit has enough weapons left to keep up, nor cares to at Lambeau in a meaningless December game in the freezing cold. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Lions

Both teams are banged up, but all healthy starters are expected to suit up. That might not include offensive tackles David Bakhtiari (hip) and Bryan Bulaga (knee) for the Packers, and the likes of Clay Matthews (back), cornerback Jaire Alexander, along with wide receivers Randall Cobb (concussion) and Equanimeous St. Brown (concussion) are also banged up.

The Lions won’t welcome back running back Kerryon Johnson (knee, IR) or slot receiver Bruce Ellington (hamstring, IR) this season, so the status of Kenny Golladay (chest) and LeGarrette Blount (knee) will be worth monitoring.

Defensive tackles Damon Harrison (ankle) and A’Shawn Robinson (knee) are also not functioning at 100%.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: There are a number of reasons for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to get Adams as involved as possible this Sunday, as he’s gunning for the following team records:

• Sterling Sharpe catches (112 in 1993, Adams at 111)
• Jordy Nelson receiving yards (1,519 in 2014, Adams at 1,386)
• The franchise’s first 100-1,500-10 receiving line

Slay deserves plenty of respect as a former first-team All-Pro corner, but Adams caught 9-of-12 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown in their first matchup back in Week 5.

The Packers' No. 1 receiver managed to ball out even with Slay chasing Adams into the slot for portions of the game.

Adams has the highest projected ceiling — and the highest projected ownership rate — on DraftKings among all wide receivers in Sunday's main slate, according to our FantasyLabs Models. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Lions/Packers Under 44.5

The weather is shaping up to make this game fall way under the projected 44.5 point total. Wind speeds are expected to be up above 17 mph.

Since 2003 the under has hit at a 55.5% clip when wind speeds are 10 mph or more. Despite heavy public action on the over (72%) the total has fallen since opening, signaling sharp under action.

We have also tracked two different Reverse Line Moves on the Under 44.5. Historically, unders have been a profitable bet in division games, especially late in the season (57% in December since 2003). — Keith LaBlanc

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.