The Detroit Lions (6-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) meet on Sunday Night Football on November 16. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pa. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Eagles are favored by -2.5 on the spread over the Lions (Eagles -2.5), with the over/under set at 46.5 total points. The Eagles are -150 moneyline favorites to win outright, while Lions is +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Lions vs Eagles predictions.
Lions vs Eagles Prediction
- Lions vs Eagles pick: Under 47 (to 46)
My Lions vs Eagles best bet is the game total Under 47. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Lions vs Eagles Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Lions vs Eagles Sunday Night Football Preview
Note: Pass rate data from nfelo. Indoor/outdoor splits via Pro-Football-Reference. YPRR data via PFF. All other data via FTN unless otherwise noted.
A number of factors point toward the under in tonight's Lions-Eagles game.
Both teams are bottom six in pass rate. The Lions pass 54% of the time (31st) and the Eagles pass 57% of the time (28th). In terms of Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), Detroit clocks in at -5.5% (29th) and Philadelphia clocks in at -2.8% (20th).
The Lions had a positive PROE for the first time all season last week in Dan Campbell's first game as the offensive playcaller, but that came against a Commanders defense that ranks 19th in DVOA against the run, but 27th against the pass.
Campbell is likely to throw fewer passes against an Eagles defense that ranks 11th versus the pass but 21st versus the run, especially with Sam LaPorta, who is tied for fifth among tight ends with 489 receiving yards, being placed on IR with a back injury.
Both of Detroit's starting tackles are also banged up. Taylor Decker (questionable; shoulder) sat out of practice Friday, and Penei Sewell (questionable; ankle) was only able to practice once this week. New starting tight end Brock Wright (questionable; ankle) was a DNP on Wednesday and limited on Thursday and Friday.
Jared Goff trumped the Commanders' leaky defense at Northwest Stadium, but the aforementioned injuries and tougher matchup could exacerbate the struggles of Outdoor Goff, who has not been as efficient in his career as Indoor Goff.
- Passer rating: 102.8 indoors; 92.2 outdoors
- Completion rate: 68.6% indoors; 63.8% outdoors
- TD rate: 5.6% indoors; 4.5% outdoors
- Interception rate: 1.7% indoors; 2.1% outdoors
- Sack rate: 4.9% indoors; 5.4% outdoors
Despite losing defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn over the offseason and suffering a rash of injuries in the secondary, the Lions defense has held up surprisingly well, clocking in at No. 5 in overall defensive DVOA, No. 3 in defensive passing DVOA and No. 7 in defensive rushing DVOA.
While I do think Jalen Hurts may force a couple to A.J. Brown, especially if the Eagles get in scoring position, his No. 1 aim is to be conservative and not turn the ball over.
With Hurts playing more conservatively and Saquon Barkley averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, the Eagles have sunk to 19th in yards per play (5.3) and 24th in yards per drive (29.1).
The Eagles are 25th in situation-neutral pace (29.2 seconds/play) and have begun relying on more heavy personnel, which tends to slow the game down even more. The Lions are an even slower-paced team, ranking 30th in pace in neutral situations (29.4).
Lions vs Eagles Prediction, Betting Analysis
According to our Action Labs data, outdoor unders with a total of 45 or higher since 2005 have gone 115-62-4 (65%) for a 25% ROI, covering by 2.2 points per game.
In matchups where the visiting team went over in its last game (like the Lions), unders with a total of 41 or higher since 2005 are 79-43-2 (65%) for a 25% ROI, covering by 2.4 points per game.
Eagles-Lions has a score of -1.826 in our Luck Rankings, which qualifies for a "strong under" designation. Per Nick Giffen, strong unders have gone 47-28-1 (63%) since 2018.
Pick: Under 47
Lions vs Eagles Anytime Touchdown Pick
My favorite anytime touchdown bet for this game is A.J. Brown (+150 FanDuel).
Whereas last week's matchup against the zone-heavy Packers favored De'Vonta Smith, who leads the Eagles in yards per route run versus zone (2.39), this matchup favors Brown as the Lions play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (42.0%). Brown leads the team with 3.98 YPRR versus man.
The Lions rank No. 28 in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers and have allowed 1.44 TDs per game to WRs, tied for second-most.
There's some reverse-correlation involved, but the under and Brown anytime TD can be parlayed together at +495 odds (DraftKings).
Spread
No play.
The Eagles have been overachieving with a 7-2 record entering Sunday Night Football, which is 1.8 wins over their Pythagorean expectation.
However, I want no part of Outdoor Jared Goff with banged-up tackles and no Sam LaPorta. For what it's worth, the Lions are a B-graded side in our Luck Rankings with a 58.8% cover probability. It's also worth noting the Lions have gone 24-12 (67%) ATS as an underdog under Campbell.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
My bet for this game is Under 47; I'd play it to Under 46.
