Dolphins vs. Giants Betting Odds & Pick: How to Bet a Battle of Veteran Quarterbacks
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Saquon Barkley.
- Our experts preview the Week 15 NFL matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New York Giants.
- You'll find betting odds, our experts' pick for this battle of two bad teams and much more below.
- You'll also find analysis of the biggest mismatch and Sean Koerner's projected spread.
Dolphins at Giants Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Giants -3.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The Giants nearly staged an upset of the Eagles in Eli Manning’s return to the field last Monday, but they couldn’t hold a lead and fell to 2-11 on the season. It’s hard to believe that the Dolphins are entering Week 15 with more wins than the opposing Giants, but head coach Brian Flores has Miami playing surprisingly well.
Our experts preview Sunday’s matchup between the Dolphins and Giants, featuring analysis of the biggest matchups and picks.
Dolphins-Giants Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Giants
Evan Engram (foot) was out last week, but he’s gotten in limited practices this week. Golden Tate (foot) also popped up on the injury report, but was upgraded to full practice on Thursday. Daniel Jones (ankle) is getting in limited practices, but it’s being reported that Manning is expected to start again.
Last week was a disaster for the Dolphins after stud receivers DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson left the game against the Jets with concussions. Both receivers remain in the concussion protocol at the time of writing. Allen Hurns (ankle/knee) is also on the injury report, but was able to return to practice on Thursday. The Dolphins may be incredibly thin at receiver heading into this game. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley vs. Dolphins LBs Jerome Baker & Sam Eguavoen
Barkley is popping in some of our FantasyLabs Models, and it’s not hard to see why: No running back on the slate has a better matchup than he does.
This has been a disappointing year for Barkley: He was injured in Week 3 and missed all of Weeks 4-6, and when on the field he has suffered from significant year-over-year regression.
- 2019 (nine games): 15.7 carries for 66.7 yards and 0.22 touchdowns rushing, 6.1 targets for 4.1 receptions, 29.4 yards and 0.11 touchdowns receiving
- 2018 (16 games): 16.3 carries for 81.7 yards and 0.69 touchdowns rushing, 7.6 targets for 5.7 receptions, 45.1 yards and 0.25 touchdowns receiving
He is getting a little less volume and is a little less efficient, but the big difference is that he’s scoring 0.61 fewer touchdowns per game. That’s what happens when a running back’s team scores 23.1 points per game in one season and just 19.0 the next.
Over the past six weeks, Barkley turned 16 carries and 5.4 targets into just 73.6 scoreless yards per game.
But this is his get-right spot.
The Dolphins are No. 29 in rush defense and No. 32 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).
Last week, the Dolphins allowed crusty 31-year-old backup Bilal Powell to get 88 yards on 19 carries and three targets. Two weeks before that, they allowed Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to combine for 210 yards and two touchdowns.
Lots of players contribute to the vastness of the Dolphins’ back-centric defensive ineptitude, but linebackers Jerome Baker and Sam Eguavoen seem especially to blame, as evidenced by their poor Pro Football Focus grades.
- Jerome Baker: 41.7 overall grade, 35.8 run defense, 54.1 coverage
- Sam Eguavoen: 47.0 overall grade, 42.4 run defense, 60.6 coverage
Whether it’s as a runner or receiver, Barkley should be able to smash against these linebackers whenever he matches up with them. In what could be a massive bounceback performance, Barkley has 160-yard, two-touchdown upside. — Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Giants -5
- Projected Total: 47
Luckily I didn’t end up pulling the trigger on Jets -5 last week — sometimes the best bet you can make is by not making one at all. I’ll be taking that route again by not taking a side in a Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Manning matchup.
PRO System Match
The Giants have lost nine in a row and the offense hasn’t topped 17 points in their past three games. Despite the struggles, oddsmakers opened the G-Men as 3.5-point favorites vs. the Dolphins.
Casual bettors aren’t buying Manning and Co. More than 70% of spread tickets are on the Dolphins as of writing (see live public betting data here). While this may seem like a good time to fade the Giants inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.
Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued as teams to regress to the mean throughout the season. This is especially true against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.
This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 167-117-4 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,610 following this strategy. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Stuckey: Giants -3.5
I just don’t think this Dolphins roster is anywhere close to as talented as the Giants, and think this line should be closer to 6.
The Dolphins own the league’s worst defense — a unit that can’t generate pressure and is completely decimated on the back-end. I expect a Giants team that should get healthier on offense with the return of Golden Tate (and potentially Engram) to move the ball with relative ease against a Dolphins defense that’s allowing 6.2 yards per play.
It looks like Manning will get the nod under center, and he looked serviceable enough in his first start back. I trust him here against a much easier defense that should also allow the Giants to get going on the ground. Plus, he likely won’t be as charitable with the ball as Jones has been.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants defensive line should dominate the line of scrimmage against an inferior Miami offensive line. The Dolphins’ offensive line ranks dead last in adjusted line yards in addition to most advanced metrics. New York’s defense excels at stopping the run which it will have no issue doing against Miami’s historically bad rushing attack that’s averaging a league-low 3.3 yards per carry.
Now, the Giants secondary has played pretty poorly this year and I have to give credit to Ryan Fitzpatrick for his production on such a bad team. However, he has no running game to speak of and a banged up receiving corps that may now be without its top wideout DeVante Parker, who is currently in concussion protocol. I think this secondary can do just enough in tangent with the defensive line production to get the necessary stops.
Before I hit either, I will wait to see if the market drives the Giants down to 3 at some point but do like both at their current levels. I also think throwing the Giants into a ML parlay with say the Patriots isn’t a bad option.
The Dolphins will fight but the Giants should win this game by 6+ more times than not.
Stuckey is 308-243-7 (55.9%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.