Ravens vs. Dolphins Betting Odds & Predictions: Will Baltimore Run Over Miami?

Ravens vs. Dolphins Betting Odds & Predictions: Will Baltimore Run Over Miami? article feature image
Credit:

Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson

Ravens at Dolphins Betting Odds

  • Odds: Ravens -6.5
  • Total: 38.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

All odds above are as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and via PointsBet.

Expectations are brutally low for the Miami Dolphins in 2019. The Fish boast the lowest win total coming into the season at 4.5 games and began their fire sale at the end of training camp by dealing Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills to the Texans.

Now Miami will open its season as a 6.5-point home underdog.

Bettors are backing the Ravens, even on the road, as 83% of the bets are on the Ravens to cover the number. But what do our experts think? Let’s dig into their analysis and see how they’re betting this game.

Ravens-Dolphins Injury Report

Again, given it’s Week 1, a lot of teams are healthy. Ravens cornerback Brandon Carr (hip) was the only player listed on their injury report on Wednesday and Albert Wilson was the only skill player on the Dolphins who got in a limited practice on Wednesday. There aren’t any crucial implications here for betting or fantasy purposes. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Ravens -5
  • Projected Total: 37.5

The Ravens have been bet up from -3.5 to -7, making them the largest road favorites in Week 1. I have them being pegged as -5 for this matchup and feel like the market is getting carried away with the 2019 Dolphins fade already.

We’re all aware that Miami is likely the worst team in the NFL and likely going to tank at the end of the season to get into position for what will be a loaded 2020 draft class at QB.

I’m waiting for this to bump up to +7.5, where I would bite the bullet and back the Dolphins. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Ravens Run Offense vs. Dolphins Run Defense

In quarterback Lamar Jackson’s eight starts last year (including playoffs), the Ravens had a 1940s-esque 61.1% run rate. But that doesn’t mean the Ravens were entirely antiquated or inefficient. They actually managed 5.0 yards per carry and had a 54% rushing success rate.

In the offseason, the Ravens promoted dual-threat run-game aficionado Greg Roman to offensive coordinator, and head coach John Harbaugh has said that the team will remain committed to the running game this year.

And that spells trouble for the Dolphins, who are not just tanking — they’re also rebuilding, especially on defense, which means that right now they’re in the process of tearing it down. Gone from last year’s front seven are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, tackle Akeem Spence and linebacker Kiko Alonso. I don’t even know who’s starting in their place. I don’t even know if the Dolphins know.

The Ravens are returning all five of their starters on the offensive line. They have one of the best running quarterbacks in the league in Jackson. They have a strong between-the-tackles grinder in Mark Ingram. They have an athletic change-of-pace back in Justice Hill. They can attack the Dolphins run defense with a variety of looks and personnel packages, and they will do so relentlessly.

Against the Ravens run game, the Dolphins defense looks almost defenseless. — Matthew Freedman

Expert Pick

John Ewing: Over 38.5

Ravens-Dolphins features the lowest total in Week 1. Baltimore led the NFL in rushing attempts (33.5) in 2018 and ranked third in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA a season ago. Miami appears to be actively tanking following multiple trades. Points could be few and far between on Sunday.

Yet, history suggests there is value betting the over. In the past 10 seasons, in all games with totals of 39 or fewer points the over has gone 147-109-2 (57%).John Ewing