Bucs vs. Falcons Odds, NFL Predictions, Week 2 Preview: This Antonio Brown Prop Is Offering Betting Value
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs’ Antonio Brown (left) and Tom Brady (right).
|Buccaneers Odds||-12.5 (-110)|
|Falcons Odds||+12.5 (-110)|
|Moneyline||+575 / -850|
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season couldn’t have been more different for the Falcons and the Buccaneers. Atlanta was both lackluster and uninspiring in its 32-6 home loss to the Eagles. Whereas Tampa Bay looked every bit the part of a team looking to defend its Super Bowl title.
With just 1:24 remaining in the fourth quarter, Tom Brady drove his Buccaneers team 57 yards to set up the game-winning field goal that defeated the Cowboys, 31-29. This week, the Buccaneers will face a Falcons team they swept in the season series last year.
At this point, Atlanta has to be tired of seeing that No. 12 jersey.
After all, Brady is a perfect 6-0 in his career when facing them, dating back to his days in New England. But he’s not the only player on this team who is undefeated against Atlanta.
You’ll have to read on to find out who that player is and why it could spell trouble for Atlanta again on Sunday.
If you’re Atlanta, do you even watch the tape of that Week 1 debacle? You might be better off just burning the footage and turning the page. It was a shambolic performance as the Falcons couldn’t do anything right on the day. Think about this for a second — Atlanta lost the game by 26 points, yet quarterback Matt Ryan finished with just 136 net passing yards. Here are some more of the Falcons’ lowlights:
- They were out-gained by almost 200 yards.
- Atlanta accumulated 99 yards in penalties.
- They converted just 3-of-14 opportunities on third down.
That’s a three-course recipe for disaster. The macro problem for the Falcons is they looked exactly like the team that finished 4-12 last season, and that’s even with a new head coach in Arthur Smith.
Instead of tearing it all down and starting over, the Falcons are going for a quick rebuild because they’re stuck with Matt Ryan’s contract.
Per NFL League source the Falcons have restructured Matt Ryan's contract..
Was due $23 million… took 21-million and made it guaranteed bonus that spreads out over the next 3-years-
Cap # is now 26.9 million – It was $40.9 million pic.twitter.com/u4NS4XwABY
— Zach Klein (@ZachKleinWSB) March 16, 2021
After restructuring his deal, he’ll have cap hits of over $40 million in both 2022 and 2023. Those cap hits are a big reason why Atlanta is trying to win now and opted for tight end Kyle Pitts instead of a quarterback with the fourth pick in the draft. That leaves Falcons fans with perhaps a declining quarterback over the next few seasons.
We’ll find out pretty quickly who this Falcons team will be this season, along with who should bear the responsibility for any failures. When it’s all said and done, the quarterback might have to take a good hard look at himself in the mirror.
It’s not just that Ryan completed 21-of-35 (60%) passes for 164 yards. But his 5.1 intended air yards per pass attempt ranked 30th in the league.
According to Sharp Football Stats, Atlanta was one of two teams last week that didn’t register a single explosive pass play. The Falcons finished eighth in this category last season. It might not be time to go into full panic mode just yet. But this certainly bears some watching in Week 2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has won nine straight games, including the postseason, dating back to last year. The Bucs are 6-3 ATS for 3.17 units during that stretch. There may be a rush to downgrade the win over the Cowboys, but I would disagree with that notion. The Buccaneers had the ball for only 25:33 and still scored 31 points. Note that they also turned the ball over four times in the ballgame. Yet, the Cowboys (451 total yards) still only outgained the Buccaneers (431 total yards) by 20 yards.
Brady averaged 9.1 intended air yards per pass attempt compared to Dak Prescott of the Cowboys, who averaged 6.4. Tampa Bay’s six explosive pass plays in the game were tied for the most in Week 1.
Last year, they finished second with 67 explosive pass plays during the regular season. Thus, this Buccaneers offense has just about picked up right where it left off. That makes sense considering that PFF ranked the Bucs receiving corps first heading into the season. They return their entire starting lineup along with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich.
Before the game against the Cowboys, Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans alluded that Brady and the receivers are already ahead of schedule compared to any point last season.
That’s particularly frightening considering they’re coming off a Super Bowl win. I don’t get the sense that this team is looking to pump the brakes anytime soon. Their offensive philosophy is already ingrained throughout the team and reinforced by one of the best football minds with Bruce Arians at the helm.
Our odds page shows that the lookahead number for this game had the Buccaneers as an 8.5-point home favorite. That number has now ballooned as high as 12.5 at some sportsbooks after Atlanta’s poor showing against the Eagles. But here’s some context you should be aware of:
- Brady is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in his career against Atlanta.
- The total has gone over in nine of the last 10 meetings.
When you combine Brady’s success against this NFC South opponent with the optimism coming out of the Buccaneers camp from players like Evans, it’s hard not to expect points in this game.
But let me pay off the tease in the opening about the other Buccaneers player who is undefeated against the Falcons.
The player in question is none other than Antonio Brown.
Not only is he 4-0 against the Falcons, but he has recorded at least 93 receiving yards in all four games. When I checked earlier in the week, I saw some sportsbooks set his yardage prop at 66.5. This prop’s been getting hit and is now up to 70.5.
However, you can still find a 68.5 available at Unibet. You’ll want to jump on this over before Unibet recognizes they’re priced below the market and adjusts.
Pick: Antonio Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Unibet