The Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) and Detroit Lions (7-4) meet on Thanksgiving Day on November 27. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. This Week 13 game will broadcast on FOX.
The Lions are favored by -2.5 on the spread over the Packers (Lions -2.5; -115); the over/under is 48.5 points. The Lions are -142 moneyline favorites and the Packers are +120 underdogs.
Let's get into my NFL Thanksgiving preview and Packers vs Lions prediction.
Packers vs Lions Prediction
- Packers vs Lions pick: 1st Half Under 24.5
My Packers vs Lions best bet is on the first half under 24.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Packers vs Lions Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
Packers vs Lions NFL Thanksgiving Preview
Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
The Packers enter today's Thanksgiving Day matchup with plenty of positive momentum. Last week, they dominated the Vikings at home and now have an opportunity to separate themselves in the NFC North.
Doing so is no easy task, as the Lions have been tremendous at home, going 4-1 at Ford Field this season. However, Green Bay has the tools to control this matchup.
On offense, it starts with the ground game, which is back at full strength with Josh Jacobs returning to the lineup. While the Lions are sixth in yards per rush allowed, controlling the clock and keeping the chains moving is critical.
Green Bay ranks first in third-down conversion rate, and that, with the run game, will be the safety net offensively. Although the Packers also have the potential to be explosive through the air as the Lions are 23rd in yards per pass allowed.
Detroit Lions Betting Preview
As for the Lions, they got back on track last week — but it wasn't easy.
The Jameis Winston-led Giants pushed Detroit to overtime, where the Lions eventually overwhelmed them with their rushing attack as Jahmyr Gibbs had a career day, going off for 219 rushing yards and two touchdowns, with 11 receptions and 45 receiving yards and a touchdown.
However, all that momentum could easily come to a halt against the Packers, who have been stout against the run — they rank sixth in yards per rush and 10th in EPA per rush.
We saw Detroit struggle to run the ball against the Packers in the season opener, which derailed Detroit's offense in the first half. While Jared Goff was efficient through the air, Detroit mustered just three points in the first half.
Since then, Green Bay's secondary has gone on to minimize big plays, ranking first in yards per pass allowed, while allowing its pass rush to work.
Packers vs Lions Prediction, Betting Analysis
We have seen the full-game total for this matchup fall below the key number of 48, but the first-half total has yet to fall in line.
If this game is going to stay under the total, it's very likely that we will see this be a defensive struggle in the first half.
Both defenses will be fresh enough to contain the run, and, if not, we will see methodical drives from either offense.
Factor in that this is as short a week as possible for each team, and the first-half under becomes the strongest angle in this game.
Pick: 1st Half Under 24.5
Spread
I lean towards the Packers covering in this matchup.
Moneyline
Along those lines, a Packers upset is very likely if they do indeed cover the spread.
Over/Under
I don't have a bet for the full-game total, but I'm on the 1st half under 24.5.
