Packers vs 49ers Prediction & Pick | Divisional Round
Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Love (left) and Brock Purdy (right).
Packers vs 49ers Prediction & Pick | Divisional Round
My Packers vs 49ers prediction & pick centers on a Brock Purdy player prop. The latest Packers vs 49ers odds for the NFL Divisional Round have the 49ers as 10.5-point home favorites on the spread with an over/under of 50.5 total points at most sportsbooks.
Green Bay enters the Divisional Round on a four-game winning streak dating back to Week 16 of the regular season. Their latest victory, of course, was a drubbing of the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round. Can Jordan Love and the Packers pull off another upset at Levi's Stadium? On the injury front, the Packers have CB Jaire Alexander, P Daniel Whelan and LB Isaiah McDuffie active; RB AJ Dillon, however, remains sidelined.
Will Christian McCaffrey cash his chalky, overinflated anytime TD prop? Will the weather have an impact on this game? Keep reading my Divisional Round betting preview to find out what my Packers vs 49ers pick is for the record 10th playoff clash between these teams.
Packers vs 49ers Prediction
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Packers vs 49ers Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -525 |
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and 49ers match up statistically:
Packers vs. 49ers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 6 | 4 | |
| Pass DVOA | 4 | 4 | |
| Rush DVOA | 15 | 15 |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 1 | 27 | |
| Pass DVOA | 1 | 26 | |
| Rush DVOA | 2 | 26 |
The 49ers will be able to exploit the Packers every which way in the run game. San Francisco leads the league with 0.034 Expected Points Added per Rush (EPA/Rush) and a 47% Rush Success Rate. Entering the Divisional Round, Christian McCaffrey still leads the league in rushing by over 200 yards despite not playing a snap since midway through the third quarter of Week 17. But it's not just McCaffrey that makes the Niners' run game go. San Francisco grades out as the NFL's top run-blocking team at PFF (82.8).
Left tackle Trent Williams is obviously elite at everything, but the other four 49ers linemen whom you've probably never heard of also all grade out better in run blocking than pass protection. Not to mention, not only does George Kittle grade out as the NFL's best run-blocking tight end, but backup Charlie Woerner grades out as third best. And don't forget world-class fullback Kyle Juszczyk.
This is a nightmare matchup for the Packers defense — or at least Packer fans watching their defense — because coordinator Joe Barry loves to stay in nickel even when opposing offenses go with heavy personnel, opting to prioritize limiting explosive passing plays. While this may seem like an analytically sound trade-off given that passing affects the outcome of games more than running, it certainly is not when you consider the Packers are an equal opportunity sieve anyway — 26th in defensive DVOA against both the run and pass. They're also worse than almost any other nickel defense at defending heavy-personnel runs, ranking 30th in EPA per rush and 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.8). Unless the weather is absolutely prohibitive, it's tough to see Barry breaking tendency here, because Brock Purdy is averaging an NFL-leading 9.6 yards per pass attempt.
But before we get to the passing game, what's fascinating about this matchup for the 49ers is that they could tie their own hands behind their back, so to speak, and still dominate. Let's say the 49ers say to hell with their world-class run-blocking fullbacks and tight ends and instead want to go full-on modern with three wide receivers on every play.
Not only is Brandon Aiyuk the top-graded run blocker in football, but No. 3 wideout Jauan Jennings is fourth among 140 qualified wide receivers (76.2). And unsurprisingly for a team that lives in nickel and soft zone, the Packers are most vulnerable when you run at their smallest bodies, i.e. their cornerbacks on the edges and their safeties on the second or third level.
Jaire Alexander is the highest-paid corner in football, but it's not for his run defense: His 58.3 PFF run-defense grade ranks 77th of 212 qualified corners. No. 2 corner Carrington Valentine (43.9, 110th) and nickel Keisean Nixon (52.5, 92nd) have been even worse, while safety Jonathan Owens (62.1, 64th of 90 qualified safeties) has not been good, either. It's also worth noting that not every Packer defender got to rest during garbage time. Valentine played a career-high 90 snaps last week; Nixon, a career-high 89 snaps; Owens, 89 snaps; and safety Darnell Savage, 79 snaps.
The 49ers love to out-physical the opposition, so you can bet Kyle Shanahan took note of this. So for everybody tuning in to see highlights of Purdy or Jordan Love or Kittle or Deebo Samuel, mentally prepare yourself to be treated to 60 minutes of the 49ers spamming outside zone while Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen gush endlessly about ground-shaking blocks in space by Aiyuk and Jennings.
Getting run all over might still be preferable to dealing with the league's most efficient quarterback in Purdy, and a supporting cast featuring:
- Samuel, who was sixth of 93 qualified wide receivers in yards per route vs. zone (2.86).
- Aiyuk, who was fifth with 3.81 yards per route vs. man and eighth vs. zone (2.84).
- Kittle, who led all tight ends in yards per route overall (2.22).
- McCaffrey, who led all running backs in receiving touchdowns (7) and yards per game (35.3).
The 49ers led the NFL with 6.6 yards per play even if you don't remove Sam Darnold's Week 18 start, and that figure improves to an unstoppable 7.3 when all of Purdy, McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle are on the field together. The Packers tend to live in Cover 3, playing it on nearly 40% of opposing pass plays, but Purdy destroys Cover 3 to the tune of a 75.3% completion rate and 9.5 YPA, both NFL bests. The best (only?) route for the Packers to have success on defense is to force turnovers and hope Love continues to cease throwing picks, as he's done for the better part of the last three months.
Green Bay's defense has done a good job of getting pressure as of late, but Purdy ranks second in the league with 8.2 YPA under pressure. He has thrown 11 interceptions this season, tied for 10th-most, but they all came in six games — and in predictable situations. The Purdy interception flow chart essentially goes as follows: Is it an elite defense (Ravens, Browns)? Is he dealing with the after-effects of a concussion while his All-Pro left tackle Williams is out (Vikings, Bengals)? Is he facing a familiar divisional opponent for the third and fourth time despite having only 24 career starts under his belt (Seahawks)? If not, then he has not thrown a pick, and the only other opponent he turned it over was a lost fumble in a 30-3 victory over Pittsburgh in Week 1.
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Another reason to expect the 49ers to go run-heavy is Love and this Packer offense is one to fear. Since the start of November, Love is averaging a 69.1% completion rate and 8.1 yards per attempt with 24 touchdowns and three interceptions. His 0.323 EPA per play over that span is second among quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, trailing only Purdy. The 49ers generate pressure at the sixth-highest rate despite blitzing at the seventh-lowest rate, which is the best way to slow down Love, whose passer rating is 3.7 points lower when not blitzed and 20.2 points lower when pressured.
Aaron Jones has rushed for at least 111 yards in each of the past four games, and the Packers coaching staff is going to want to keep a defense that still saw half its starters play 75-plus snaps last week off the field as much as possible. So as well as Love is playing, we will likely see them come out with a game plan that skews run-heavy.
On paper, the run sets up as a relative vulnerability of the 49ers defense — they rank 15th in DVOA against the run and fourth against the pass — but those are somewhat misleading. San Francisco faced an NFL-low 21.7 rush attempts per game and allowed the third-fewest yards per game on the ground (89.7). Even in a 33-19 loss to the Ravens in Week 15, San Francisco held Baltimore's top-ranked rushing offense to 3.9 yards per carry and a season-low 102 yards.
Packers vs. 49ers Prediction
There are arguments for both sides here. The 49ers have a rest and preparation advantage. They wouldn't be hurt as much as most favorites by inclement weather because they have the better rush offense and rush defense. Laying a big number doesn't figure to be as much of an issue as it would be for most teams, as 11 of San Francisco's 12 wins have come by 12 points or more. And as impressive as Love has been, the Packers still took Ls against the Buccaneers (by double digits), the Giants and the Matt Canada/Kenny Pickett Steelers during Love's hot streak.
But you can't lay over a touchdown unless you have supreme confidence in the favorite, and that's tough to have after Green Bay destroyed the touchdown-favorite Cowboys 48-32 last week in Love's first playoff game. On top of that, the trends favor the Packers: Per our Action Labs data, No. 1 seeds -10 or less in the Divisional Round are just 9-25-1 (26%) against the spread (ATS) since 2003, while Divisional Round 'dogs who won 6-8 games in the prior season while failing to make the playoffs are 18-2 (90%) ATS over the past two decades.
The total could also go either way. Both teams — but especially San Francisco — could look to go run-heavy, which would eat the clock and shorten the game. Rainy, windy weather also favors the under. Conversely, both teams could be highly efficient with their possessions, and this game is also a Luck Over.
Therefore, my favorite play in this game is a prop: Brock Purdy not to throw an interception. This is a way to invest in what I think is the most likely outcome — the 49ers going run-heavy and having success — without laying a big number or betting inflated McCaffrey overs (for the record, I have fair odds for McCaffrey's anytime TD projected at -233 but am seeing it listed at pricing ranging no lower than -275 and as high as -500 across the various shops).
In every postseason under Shanahan, the 49ers' pass rate over expected has decreased relative to the regular season, including last year with Purdy. He already averages only 27.8 passing attempts per game, and there are numerous factors (bad weather, run-heavy game plan, high efficiency against a shaky pass defense, etc.) that could result in Purdy attempting even fewer throws in this game, limiting his interception probability.
Postseason Dak Prescott gifted the Packers a couple of easy picks last week but during the regular season, Green Bay finished with an interception rate of 1.3%, which was third lowest in the NFL. Across 24 regular-season and postseason starts, Purdy has thrown an interception in only eight games, or 33% of the time, which would imply -203 odds to the under.
While I don't peg his true odds of throwing an interception quite that high, I do project his likelihood of not throwing a pick in this game right around his 2023 rate of 63%, which allows for a decent edge with most books offering odds in the -110 to -130 range.
Pick:Brock Purdy Under 0.5 interceptions (-117 at BetRivers & -125 at DraftKings | Bet to -170)
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DVOA data via FTN. All other data via PFF unless otherwise noted.
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