The Houston Texans (6-5) and Indianapolis Colts (8-3) clash in NFL Week 13 on Sunday, Nov. 30. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Colts are 3.5-point favorites over the Texans (Colts -3.5); the over/under is 44 points. Indianapolis is a -190 moneyline favorite; Houston is +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Texans vs Colts prediction for today's AFC South game.
Texans vs Colts Prediction
- Texans vs Colts pick: Colts -3.5 (-110)
My Texans vs Colts best bet is on Indianapolis to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Colts Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Texans vs Colts Week 13 Preview
By this time of the year, unless you're getting out in front of injury news, you're not going to find a line that is way off.
Therefore, I'm mainly looking at matchups and other factors that aren't fully accounted for in the market.
The key factor for AFC South tilt is the Texans getting C.J. Stroud back. Historically, quarterbacks coming back from concussion after they missed multiple games have seen a drop in production — that means you can expect some rust from Stroud.
It comes right as he matches up against an Indianapolis defense that is one of the most underrated in the league in my eyes; now even more so that Sauce Gardner is back, as well as Charvarius Ward and Kenny Moore.
The Texans have won three straight games with Davis Mills starting at QB, but they could have easily have lost all three.
Houston needed a miracle comeback to beat the Jaguars, they squeaked one out against the Titans — even if they deserved it — and then escaped with another narrow victory against the Bills.
The Texans have been a little better running the ball; they’re getting running back Woody Marks more involved.
However, Houston still isn't a great rushing offense, and now the Colts have the secondary to match up with the Texans' receivers.
I don't see Houston doing much on offense in this game, especially with Stroud coming back from concussion.
On the other hand, Houston’s defense is the best in the league. The Texans certainly can generate pressure and fluster Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, who is reportedly dealing with a fractured fibula.
The Texans have the top-ranked defense in the league against play action, and the Colts rank top-two in play-action usage on offense.
Regardless, this Colts offense is a juggernaut at home, and this is a good spot to buy them.
They are only 1-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last three games, but they played at the Steelers (in Berlin outdoors) and at the Chiefs.
The Colts have been away from home and playing outdoors for three straight weeks; I'm going to cut them some slack.
Texans vs Colts Prediction, Betting Analysis
Back at home, the Colts should be score enough points to keep the Texans an arm's length away, with Stroud coming back from a concussion and Indianapolis’ defense trending up.
The Colts offense has been incredibly good early in games, which should help them jump out to an early lead. They have great finishing drives and fourth-down aggression, and they're going to win all those in-game management decisions.
Pick: Colts -3.5 (-110)
Spread
My Colts vs Texans betting prediction is on Indianapolis to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no bet for the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
