The Houston Texans (12-5) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) will face off in the final game of the NFL Wild Card Round on Monday, Jan. 12. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and ABC.
The Texans are 3-point favorites on the spread over the Steelers (Texans -3; -102), with the over/under set at 38.5 (-105o/ -115u). The Texans are -155 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Steelers are +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Texans vs Steelers prediction in my Wild Card Round preview below.
Texans vs Steelers Prediction
- Texans vs Steelers pick: Texans -3 (-102)
My Texans vs Steelers best bet is on the Texans to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Steelers Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -102 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | -155 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -118 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
Texans vs Steelers Wild Card Round Preview
The Steelers played poorly in the first half a week ago against the Ravens, and despite a second-half comeback, they were one field goal away from being left out of the NFL playoff field.
Suddenly, they have become a public darling on tonight in their Wild Card Round matchup with the Texans.
The majority of bettors are riding with the narrative of the Steelers playing at home and head coach Mike Tomlin's success as an underdog, but it’s an overreaction to what they just saw that is creating this false sense of confidence that these narratives will result in a victory.
The Texans boast the No. 2 defensive unit in total DVOA. Pittsburgh played five games this season against top-10 defenses. When filtering Aaron Rodgers’ performance against this level of defense, it starts to paint a picture of what to expect in this game.
Rodgers averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt with five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. His 78.6 passing rating and 6.5-yard average depth of target display the struggle this offense faces anytime they are up against a top defensive team.
Pittsburgh faces third down on nearly half of its new sets of downs (49%), meaning it is all but a certainty that Rodgers will have to consistently convert on third downs to move the sticks if the Steelers have any chance to sustain drives.
The Texans’ pass rush is elite, ranking fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (40%). Under pressure this season, Rodgers’ passer rating is a discouraging 69.3.
This is a recipe for disaster for a Steelers passing attack that relies too heavily on their running backs in the receiving game and on DK Metcalf as their lone explosive element.
Metcalf has his work cut out for him in this game as Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. gives Houston a distinct matchup advantage.
Per Pro Football Focus, Stingley graded as the 10th-best cover corner in the NFL this season, and his running mate Kamani Lassiter isn’t too far behind, ranking top 25 in coverage grade out of 111 qualifying players at the position.
No matter who Metcalf is matched up against, the Texans will be able to force the ball to go elsewhere. Both Lassiter and Stingley were dealing with injuries heading into this week, but both returned to practice and the extra day between games only assists their recovery.
When it comes to the coverages each quarterback will see the most often in this game, Houston again has the advantage.
The Texan utilize a high percentage of Cover-3, followed by a steady dose of Cover-4. Rodgers averages just 6.1 yards per pass against these two looks, specifically.
As for the Steeler defense, they tend to lean on single-high safety looks, using both Cover-3 and Cover-1 at a high clip.
C.J. Stroud thrives when facing both of these coverages, averaging over eight yards per attempt this season versus them, often by feeding his top weapon, Nico Collins — who torches these two looks to the tune of 3.2 yards per route run.
Texans vs Steelers Prediction, Betting Analysis
There were eight NFL teams with Super Bowl odds at +1500 or shorter entering Wild Card Weekend, one of which the Texans. Houston had five losses in the regular season, and four of those came against those aforementioned squads.
The only time Houston was defeated by a non-Super Bowl favorite came against the Buccaneers back in Week 2. The Texans have lost just two games since Week 4, and those losses came against each conference’s top seed in the Broncos and Seahawks.
The Steelers will struggle to reach 14 points in this game as Aaron Rodgers will deal with constant pressure.
Don’t be surprised when the Texans win this game comfortably. Laying just a field goal with the much better team here is tremendous value.
Pick: Texans -3 (-102)
Spread
The Texans clearly outmatch the Steelers, which is why I think Houston covers this rather easily.
Moneyline
I'm not crazy about the moneyline value here.
Over/Under
I don't see Pittsburgh reaching 14 points, and Houston's offense isn't very dynamic. But I'll look to avoid this since Stroud can sling it.
