Colts vs Jaguars Pick, Odds: Bet This NFL Week 6 Underdog
Getty Images. Pictured: Gardner Minshew (left) and Trevor Lawrence (right).
Colts vs Jaguars Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -200 |
We're making a Colts vs. Jaguars pick for the season time in this young season.
Gardner Minshew will start for Anthony Richardson, whose rookie season may be in jeopardy due to a shoulder injury. He'll face a Jacksonville team coming off two straight games in London.
Let's break down the Colts vs. Jaguars odds and make a pick.
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The Colts injury report is a bit of a mixed bag heading into this game.
Indianapolis will have left tackle Bernhard Raimann, top pass rusher Kwity Paye and middle linebacker Shaquille Leonard back in the lineup. However, right tackle Braden Smith is out and center Ryan Kelly didn't practice on Friday and is leaning toward missing the game. One of the major changes for the Colts this season has been improved offensive-line play, where they rank sixth in run block grades from PFF and 15th in pass block overall.
Jacksonville's secondary has improved since the early portion of the season, but Gardner Minshew has shown that there isn't much of a drop-off in play-to-play consistency from Anthony Richardson. There’s less explosiveness and upside without Richardson — Zack Moss’ long touchdown run last week happened because of two defenders accounting for Richardson in the read option — but Minshew can keep the Colts right around league average offensively.
Minshew ranks 17th in EPA + CPOE composite, which is actually higher than Trevor Lawrence. The Colts have more yards per play, fewer yards per play allowed and both offenses rank inside the top 10 in early down EPA per play.
There's a massive gulf in Minshew's numbers when throwing from a clean pocket vs. under pressure this season. He has an 86 grade from PFF with 7.4 yards per play and zero turnover-worthy plays when not pressured; his PFF grade drops to 30.5 with 5.5 yards per attempt when under duress. Jacksonville's pass rush has seriously underwhelmed to this point — it is bottom six in both pass rush win rate and pass rush grades from PFF.
Minshew should find success through the air even if the Colts struggle to run on Jacksonville, which I do expect given the Jaguars' solid run defense.
Bet Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville at FanDuel
There's been a handful of issues with Jacksonville's offense, but none are bigger than the offensive line.
It's extremely difficult to run on the Colts' defensive front — DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are a major reason they are top eight in rush stop win rate and completely bottled up Derrick Henry last week.
The Colts really struggled to generate pressure without Paye in the lineup against the Titans, and as a result, DeAndre Hopkins feasted on the depleted Indianapolis secondary. Calvin Ridley had eight catches (11 targets) for 101 yards and a touchdown in the Jaguars' Week 1 win.
The onus is on Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to find the fix to slow down Ridley because the Jaguars are likely to be extremely pass heavy. Jacksonville hasn't rushed on 2nd and 10 after an incompletion on first down through the first five games.
Colts vs. Jaguars
Betting Picks & Predictions
We've never seen this situational spot where a team spends two weeks in London and then comes home and plays another game immediately. Similar to how Jacksonville had a massive advantage on Buffalo last Sunday because of their extra time spent in London, I think the extra time in London plays against the Jags in this spot.
On one hand, you could argue the market has overreacted given that the Colts closed +5 at home in Week 1 and are now just +4 in Jacksonville. However, the market came into the year too low on the Colts and too high on Jacksonville based on how last season ended for both clubs.
Despite the Colts' total failure to win or even be competitive in Jacksonville the last few seasons, it's a new staff, new quarterback and different scheme. The Jaguars have moved the ball offensively down-to-down, but their inability to run the ball has led to red-zone issues that will make it hard for them to separate in this divisional matchup.
I'd bet the Colts +4 or better.
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