Jaguars vs. Panthers Betting Odds & Picks: Which Backup QB Has the Edge?

Jaguars vs. Panthers Betting Odds & Picks: Which Backup QB Has the Edge? article feature image

Michael Madrid-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Gardner Minshew.

  • Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars face off against Kyle Allen and the Panthers (-3.5) on Sunday.
  • Our staff discusses which backup QB has the edge as well as how to bet the spread and over/under.

Jaguars at Panthers Betting Odds & Picks

  • Panthers Spread: -3.5
  • Jaguars Spread: +3.5
  • Over/Under: 41
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

In a battle of backup quarterbacks who have successfully filled in for their veteran counterparts, bettors are siding with the road team. As of Thursday, about 54% of bettors like the Jaguars to cover the 3.5-point spread.

Which one of these two passers will have the most success in Week 5?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Jaguars-Panthers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Jaguars

The main question mark for the Jaguars is cornerback Jalen Ramsey (back) as he continues to miss practice with his back injury. Gardner Minshew (knee) has been limited in practice this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to sit this one out.

Meanwhile, the Panthers had five players miss practice on Thursday, including defensive lineman Gerald McCoy (knee) and corner Donte Jackson (groin). If McCoy were to miss this game, that would be a nice boost for Leonard Fournette since McCoy is one of the best run defenders on the team. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Panthers Pass Defense vs. Jaguars Pass Offense

Minshew may have already Wally Pipped Nick Foles, but this game sets up as a “welcome to the NFL moment” for the rookie.

By any metric, Carolina’s pass defense has been pitch-black, lights out:

  • Net yards per pass attempt: 3.9 (first)
  • Passing yards per game: 156.8 (first)
  • Yards per completion: 8.1 (first)
  • QB hits: 34 (first)
  • Sack rate: 11.3% (first)
  • Explosive pass rate: 5.0% (third)
  • Early-down pass success rate: 43.9% (fifth)

Minshew has acquitted himself well, but he has averaged a pedestrian 6.4 net yards per attempt on the season, and the Jaguars are putting up just 19.3 points per game in his starts.

Jaguars offensive coordinator John DeFilippo has been known to be pass-happy, but his best bet is keeping it on the ground vs. a Panthers defense that is ranked 31st in explosive rush rate (17.8%).

As the Jags’ defense has allowed just 14.7 points per game to non-Chiefs opponents, it’s tough to see this game going over the total with Minshew and the pass game likely unable to hold up their side of the bargain. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Panthers -3.5
  • Projected Total: 41

Kyle Allen came back down to Earth last week, but the Panthers were still able to pull off the 16-10 upset over the Texans — and that was despite Allen losing three fumbles. Now he gets a Jaguars defense reeling the past two games and will continue to be overrated as long as Ramsey sits out.

To put things into perspective, the Jaguars have allowed 300-plus yard games to Marcus Mariota and Joe Flacco over the past two weeks. Allen is more than capable of taking advantage of a Ramsey-less Jags defense, so the Panthers would be a slight lean here if Ramsey is ruled out.Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Mike Randle: Panthers -3.5

As outlined above, Minshew will face his toughest test of the season. His low net yards per attempt will be amplified against Carolina’s fourth-best pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). The Panthers held the Texans’ explosive offense to 160 passing yards while totaling six sacks.

In Jacksonville’s 26-24 win at Denver, the Jaguars’ offensive line allowed five sacks to a Broncos team that had failed to record a sack in their first three games.

The Jaguars will need to lean on Fournette, who gashed the Denver defense for 225 yards. However, the Panthers will also benefit from a Jaguars defense that is ranked 18th in pass defense DVOA and 23rd ranked defense in run DVOA.

Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Allen

With Jacksonville’s cornerback Jalen Ramsey’s status still unknown, the Panthers offense could exceed their team total of 20.7 points. The Panthers are the most balanced team with a defense that is playing at a season-high level.

Look for Minshew’s incredible run to come to an end and the Panthers to cover the 3.5-point line for their third straight victory.

Raybon: Under 41

As mentioned, the Panthers are allowing just 3.9 net yards per pass and should force the Jags to drive the length of the field to score.

Meanwhile, the Jags have allowed 5.7 net yards per attempt and 14.7 points per game excluding the Chiefs game, which would rank ninth and fourth, respectively.

Allen led the offense to 38 points against a Cardinals defense ranked 25 or worse in both metrics, but they mustered only 16 points against a Houston unit ranked top-12 in both.

According to our Bet Labs data, the under is 2-1 in Minshew’s starts and 12-8 since the start of last season, and that mark figures to improve with both of these teams unlikely to light up the scoreboard.

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