Saints vs Jaguars Odds, Prediction: Trevor Lawrence Injury Impacts Thursday Night Football Bet

Saints vs. Jaguars odds have moved over the past couple days, and you can still find both Saints -1.5 and -2.5 as of 6:20 p.m. ET. The total has risen to 41 after positive news continued to emerge about the Trevor Lawrence injury (knee) that he suffered last Sunday.

Lawrence is active and was wearing a knee brace during pregame warmups. He appears set to start, but whether he's close to 100% remains to be seen.

Let's break down the matchup and make our Saints vs. Jaguars prediction below.

When the Saints Have the Ball

The Saints are also dealing with injuries along the offensive line as both LT James Hurst and RT Ryan Ramczyk have been ruled out.

Ramczyk’s injury has the biggest impact as there is a big dip from him to backup Nick Saldiveri. The injuries will force the Saints to reshuffle their O-line with two starters out on a short week against a solid Jags D-line.

Derek Carr’s struggles in the red zone have continued this year – he ranks 29th in completion % and 28th in success rate (out of 35 QBs). It’s a huge reason why the Saints, who are the only team in the league that’s seen the under hit in all six of their games, rank 27th in points per drive.

When the Jaguars Have the Ball

All eyes are on Lawrence. Even if he plays, he’s unlikely to be 100% and his mobility could be compromised.

Lawrence ranks 15th in success rate when throwing from the pocket and eighth when throwing from outside the pocket. If his knee prevents him from escaping the pocket as much, it could hurt his efficiency, especially considering he’s been sacked on 21.3% of pressures he’s faced (12th-highest rate). His pressure-to-sack rate will also likely increase if his mobility is hindered.

This could be an issue considering RG Brandon Scherff is questionable while LG Walker Little has been ruled out. Little’s absence is a big blow as he’s been Jacksonville’s best pass and run blocker. He’s only allowed five pressures on 179 pass plays; his replacement, Tyler Shatley, has allowed 10 pressures on 138 pass plays.

Zay Jones, the Jaguars’ No. 3 wide receiver, has also been ruled out. None of their ancillary receivers have been able to step up in his absence, so it’s definitely a hit to the offense.

If Lawrence is ruled out, it’ll be C.J. Beathard under center for the Jaguars.

Beathard has a 2-10 record in 12 NFL starts, but we have to remember those were with the 49ers when they didn’t have the playmakers they do now. His numbers were in line with your average backup QB: 59% completion rate, 6.9 yards per attempt, 18:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

He has a much better supporting cast with the Jaguars. The drop-off from Lawrence to Beathard is probably worth around 4-4.5 points. Considering Lawrence might not be 100% if he plays, though, it’s probably closer to 3-3.5.

It’s also a matchup against a tough Saints defense that ranks seventh in DVOA. I can see the Jaguars offense struggling on the short week with so many key players banged up.

I am definitely interested in the under for this game.

The Jaguars offense could be without a number of key players on offense. Even if Trevor Lawrence suits up, he’s not going to be 100% and that could cause him to be less efficient. The Saints will also be without two starters on the offensive line against a solid Jaguars defense that ranks eighth in DVOA.

Land Clark will be officiating the game and the under has gone 29-20 (59%) in games he’s officiated since 2020.

The key here will be timing when to take the under as Lawrence’s status could send this total up or down a couple points from now until kickoff. Given the uncertainty, here are some key things to know about how the spread and total have shifted over the course of the week.

• The spread opened at Jaguars -1.5 with a total at 42.5 on Sunday, which is exactly where I would have this game if Lawrence were 100%.
• When it looked like Lawrence might miss this game, the spread shifted to Saints -3 and the total dropped to 39.
• Now that Lawrence appears to be a true game-time decision, the spread is -1.5 with the total at 39.5.

I think the floor for the total is closer to 39, and it could move up to 41.5 (or higher) if Lawrence is active. That’s the ideal scenario to take the under so I think it makes sense to wait this out and potentially get 41, at least.

If Lawrence is ruled out and the total is 39 or higher, I'd take the under (and bet down to 38.5).

As of 5:15 p.m. ET, bet365 became the first book to post 41. DraftKings and BetRivers followed suit soon thereafter.

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