Jaguars vs Saints Best Bets: NFL Player Props, Picks for Thursday Night Football
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Jaguars vs Saints Odds Thursday Night Football
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 41 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 41 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Jaguars vs. Saints kick off NFL Week 7 with a Thursday Night Football clash at the Superdome, and we have a number of betting picks for TNF.
The line for Jaguars-Saints has New Orleans favored in the range of -1.5 to -2.5 on the spread – this following news that Trevor Lawrence is active for the game. The game total has ticked up to 41, though 40.5 can still be found (at FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook).
Our staff of betting analysts is all over Thursday Night Football with bets on the game total, Saints team total and three player props (Derek Carr, Travis Etienne Jr. and Alvin Kamara).
Continue reading for our Jaguars vs. Saints best bets and additional betting coverage of TNF.
Jaguars vs Saints Best Bets: Player Props, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jaguars vs. Saints
By Cody Goggin
Thursday Night Football is typically not where you look for high-scoring shootouts. This matchup in Week 7, however, may be even worse than we're accustomed to.
The Saints love to have as many wide receivers on the field as they can. This season, they've run 10 (four receivers, one running back) and 01 (four receivers, one tight end) personnel more than any other team in the league. They also have the fourth-highest rate of 12 personnel (two receivers, two tight ends, one running back) usage in the NFL this year.
Unfortunately for New Orleans, facing groupings like that has been the strength of the Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars have the lowest EPA allowed in the league against 12 personnel at -0.45 EPA per play. This has been at -0.36 per pass and -0.79 per rush. As the league average EPA against 12 personnel is -0.02, Jacksonville has far exceeded expectations there.
Jacksonville hasn’t faced 10 or 01 personnel this year but they are a bit worse against 11. They're 19th in the league in EPA against 11 personnel, but teams are averaging -0.26 EPA per rush in this alignment against them.
The injury report for the Saints is rough, as they will be without Ryan Ramczyk, James Hurst and Landon Young along the offensive line. For Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence has been questionable all week with a knee sprain, and even if he plays, he's unlikely to be 100%. Starters Walker Little, Brandon Scherff and Zay Jones are all out for the Jaguars, as well.
Early downs may be a struggle for Jacksonville when rushing the ball. The Jags rank 30th in run block win rate and Pro Football Focus' run blocking grade, but New Orleans’ defense is eighth in run stop win rate and PFF run defense grade. Jacksonville is already just 24th in rushing success rate this season.
With a total of 40, I like taking this under even if Lawrence is playing. If you're optimistic that he'll play, then wait to play until you get that news since that would likely cause the total to rise. However, this number will go down if he is ruled out, but I would still bet the under down to 37.5 in that case.
Pick: Under 40.5
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Jaguars vs. Saints
The Saints have scored more than 20 points twice in six games this season. One of the games they cleared this number included a defensive score, as the offense could only muster 4.3 yards per play. Though six weeks, New Orleans' offense ranks 20th in total DVOA with a schedule rank of 26, meaning only six teams have faced an easier slate of defenses.
Ryan Ramczyk, Pro Football Focus' 26th-rated tackle in the NFL, will miss this game. For an offense that converts a first down on only 11.2% of their first-down plays (the lowest rate in the NFL) and is 26th in yards per play, the task becomes even more difficult without a fully healthy offensive line.
The Jaguars defense has allowed opponents to score points on only 27.5% of possessions, ranking them fifth in the league. This eighth-ranked DVOA defensive unit has surrendered over 20 points just once in their last five games, and their schedule included facing both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
A borderline broken Saints offense led by Derek Carr won't be the team to buck the trend here.
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Jaguars vs. Saints
As of right now, we don't know if Jamaal Williams is going to return to action, but Kamara will be in for a massive workload regardless and has a decent shot of getting into the end zone. In three games this season, Kamara has been the centerpiece of the Saints' offense with 52 carries and 23 receptions from 25 targets.
Kamara gets a below-average matchup here, but I'm not too worried considering his workload. Through the first three games, Kamara has been underwhelming with 3.8 yards per carry and 3.7 yards per reception, but he's far too talented for those low totals to continue and is due for some positive regression. Kamara hasn't broken off a single run or catch for over 15 yards and that should change here.
Kamara hasn't had a ton of TDs since Drew Brees retired, but this offense is running a lot better with Carr under center and Kamara still has 72 TDs in 91 career games. I have it right around 50-50 that Kamara finds the end zone on Thursday night, making this a great EV bet that I would hit all the way down to +110.
Jaguars vs. Saints
This is more of a number grab on a struggling quarterback who is not 100% healthy, so play conservatively and only if you can get the number.
The Jaguars defense is a pass funnel. Opponents are averaging more than 39 pass attempts per game against Jacksonville, which will be without one of their top cover corners in Tyson Campbell.
When running the simulations on this game, my model had Carr in the mid-240s in 80% of the results. It's a small edge, but still an edge on a boring Thursday Night Football game.
Pick: Derek Carr Over 235.5 Passing Yards (+100)
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Jaguars vs. Saints
By Ricky Henne
Few teams rely on a single player like the Jaguars do with Travis Etienne, who has emerged as one of the league’s few true bellcow backs. He leads the NFL in total touches (134) and carries (113). Etienne also ranks second in touches per game (22.5) as he sees his fair share of targets in the passing game.
A heavy dose of Etienne’s been key to Jacksonville’s success. He’s clearly expected to have a substantial workload each week, and I believe that'll be the case once again against the Saints with Jacksonville’s quarterback situation in flux.
Trevor Lawrence’s status is up in the air, but he's trending in the right direction – he’s practiced on a limited basis. A quick turnaround on a short week, though, is no small feat. Lawrence says he’s “optimistic” he’ll play, but it’s unlikely he’s 100% if he gives it a go. If he can’t suit up, Jacksonville will turn to C.J. Beathard, who hasn’t started a game since the final week of the 2020 season with the 49ers.
The line for Etienne’s combined rushing and receiving yards is set pretty high at 87.5. To be fully transparent, I tend to stay away from numbers like this on Thursday Night Football. I’m always concerned teams ease the throttle on player workloads considering it’s their second game in five days, so make of that what you will.
However, considering Etienne’s the busiest running back in the league and the uncertainty at quarterback, I expect we’ll see him touch the ball a ton against the Saints. He’s surpassed 87.5 total yards in half of his games this season.
I think the volume will be there, making this a matter of how effective Etienne can be with his touches. As always, make sure to shop around. I'd take this up to 89.5.
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Pick: Travis Etienne Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
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