Justin Herbert Props: How to Bet Chargers QB’s Passing Odds vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Southern California to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a game that has massive AFC playoff picture implications.
The winner of this game will take control of the AFC West. And, of course, a division title guarantees at least one home playoff game.
A Chiefs win would also vault them, at least temporarily, into the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
A Chargers win means they only need to beat the Texans, Broncos and Raiders to lock down a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed.
While the public is backing the Chiefs at -3.5, the sharps and wise guys absolutely love the Chargers at +3.5. Some of those same sharps also like some of the following Justin Herbert player props.
Justin Herbert Most Valuable Passing Player Props
- Passing yards over: 284.5, -115 (FanDuel)
- Passing yards under: 293.5, -115 (BetRivers)
- Passing touchdowns over: 1.5, -182 (FoxBET)
- Passing touchdowns under: 2.5, -215 (BetRivers)
- Pass attempts over: 37.5, -115 (BetMGM)
- Pass attempts under: 37.5, -108 (BetRivers)
- Pass completions over: 25.5, +100 (BetMGM)
- Pass completions under: 25.5, -114 (FanDuel)
- Interceptions over: 0.5, -115 (PointsBet, FanDuel)
- Interceptions under: 0.5, -115 (PointsBet, FanDuel)
Herbert has thrown for more than 284.5 passing yards in seven out of his 13 games this season, which implies these odds should be somewhere around -116. That means FanDuel is pricing its odds on Herbert’s passing yards almost exactly in line with historical precedent.
Meanwhile, the under on that prop has implied odds of roughly +117, meaning there’s limited value on BetRivers’ pricing.
Herbert has thrown for two or more TDs in nine of 13 games this season, which implies the odds should be closer to around -225.
He’s also thrown for two or more TDs in each of his last four games.
FOXBet’s -182 vig on Herbert to throw for at least two touchdowns has by far the best value on this slate. Throw a sprinkle on that — and on Austin Ekeler to score a TD at -150. The rationale for that player prop is laid out in this article below.