The Las Vegas Raiders (1-1) and Washington Commanders (1-1) will face off in NFL Week 3. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Commanders are favored by -3 with the over/under set at 43.5 total points. Commanders are a -150 favorite to win outright, while the Raiders are +125 to pull off the upset.
Marcus Mariota is set to get the start for the Commanders on Sunday against the visiting Raiders. Washington is a field-goal favorite despite the absence of Jayden Daniels, but several other red flags give me pause when handicapping whether they are a deserved favorite. The value side is on the visiting underdogs in this matchup.
Let's get into my Raiders vs Commanders predictions for Sunday, September 21.
Raiders vs Commanders Prediction
- Raiders vs Commanders pick: Raiders +3 (Play to +1.5)
My Raiders vs Commanders best bet is the Raiders to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Raiders vs Commanders Odds
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- Raiders-Commanders Moneyline: Raiders +125, Commanders -150
- Raiders-Commanders Total: 43.5
- Raiders-Commanders Spread: Raiders +3, Commanders -3
- Raiders-Commanders Best Bet: Raiders +3 (-115)
Raiders vs Commanders NFL Week 3 Preview
The Commanders offense averaged just 3.5 yards per play last week in Green Bay, which was their worst offensive performance in the Jayden Daniels era.
Austin Ekeler suffered an injury late in the game that will cost him his season, and his replacement in that role will not be nearly as seasoned when it comes to playing on passing downs.
Overall, it was a disappointing night for Washington, and one that may be indicative of greater issues the team is dealing with after its breakout 2024 season.
The Commanders have yet to generate the explosive plays we were accustomed to seeing a season ago. Washington ranks 30th in explosive play rate through two games as Terry McLaurin has failed to take the top off of the defense thus far and the ground attack has gained 15+ yards on a rush at just a 3.9% rate.
The running game may struggle again on Sunday.
Las Vegas has played sound football in defending the run. The Raiders have stuffed rushes at or behind the line of scrimmage on 28% of carries against them, the fifth highest rate league-wide. Running backs are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry against the Raiders' front seven through two weeks.
The Commanders defense has been aggressive, blitzing at the sixth-highest rate, but they have not gotten home as often as they would have liked.
Washington ranks 23rd in adjusted sack percentage, a metric that takes into consideration down and distance in addition to things like intentional grounding on a per-pass basis.
Getting pressure on Geno Smith is crucial to their defensive success; Smith has a 43.2 passer rating this season when he has been under pressure. I am not convinced the Commanders can consistently make him uncomfortable in this game.
The Raiders need to bounce back offensively and I believe they will on Sunday. Smith is coming off one of the worst games of his career and Ashton Jeanty has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 66% of his carries.
Make no mistake, this is the bottom of the market for the Raiders offense. Brock Bowers should have plenty of opportunities this week — the Commanders rank 26th in DVOA defending the tight end this season.
Non-conference visiting underdogs have historically fared very well early in the season.
Since 2003, in the month of September, visiting underdogs outside of the conference are 113-86-8, covering at a 57.1% rate. Over the last eight seasons, they are 44-26-2, covering at a 62.9% rate.
Raiders vs Commanders Prediction, Betting Analysis
When any visiting underdog, inside the conference or out, is coming off a loss, they are 35-19-1 in the month of September, covering the number at a 64.8% rate over the last seven seasons.
It’s easy to overlook teams catching points early in the season because it’s likely they haven’t had time to put together an impressive performance.
Las Vegas fits into this category perfectly. I’d play this number down to +1.5 as the line continues to move.
Pick: Raiders +3 (Play to +1.5)
Spread
As mentioned, I like Raiders' spread line for this matchup.
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from game total.
