Rams vs Cowboys Odds, Picks, Prediction | NFL Week 8
Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Stafford (left) and Dak Prescott.
Rams vs Cowboys Odds, Prediction
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
It's time to bet on Cowboys vs Rams! Here's everything you need with our Cowboys vs Rams expert picks and prediction today, plus the latest, updated NFL Week 8 odds.
Currently, the Cowboys are 6.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. At bet365, the over/under is 45.5 total points scored. The Cowboys are -300 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Rams are +240 underdogs.
Let's break down this Week 8 matchup and make our Cowboys vs Rams pick on the spread.
Pick: Cowboys -6.5
Rams vs Cowboys Pick, Prediction: Cowboys -6.5
For all of the discourse regarding the performance of Dak Prescott, in obvious passing situations, he ranks as the sixth-best quarterback in the NFL in expected points added. He also ranks ninth in completion percentage over expectation.
Prescott is not only coming off his best game of the season as a passer, but as a rusher as well. I expect the Cowboys' red-zone issues to be alleviated by a combination of preparedness after the bye, designed rushes from Prescott and a vulnerable Rams defense.
The Rams have allowed more than 8.0 yards per pass attempt in three of their last four games. Over the first seven, no defense in the league has fewer sacks plus turnovers per game, according to Sharp Football.
Against the run, the Rams rank 20th in DVOA and they surrender 4.23 yards per rushing attempt to opposing ball carriers (21st). I don’t expect this unit will be able to stop the run or create enough havoc around Prescott. Under these near-perfect conditions, the Cowboys offense should sustain success.
Bet Los Angeles vs. Dallas at FanDuel
Prescott's counterpart, Matthew Stafford, will not have the same luxury. The strength of the Rams up front is their right side of the offensive line.
Rob Havenstein, PFF’s 17th-ranked tackle, is dealing with a calf injury, missing practice both Thursday and Friday and is listed as questionable. He is likely to be limited, at best, if not miss this game. Joe Noteboom would likely step in at right tackle if Havenstein is out of the lineup at any point.
In four appearances totaling 154 snaps in which he was in pass protection, Noteboom’s blocking grade of 24.7 ranks him last in the league out of all tackles, according to PFF, and he is the fourth-worst out of all qualifying guards (the position he played in three of his four games).
Last week, even with Havenstein in the lineup, Stafford was pressured 10 times, with six of those allowed by left tackle Alaric Jackson, who is ranked 63rd out of 75 qualifying pass protectors at the positions, per PFF.
The timing couldn’t be worse, as the Cowboys feature a front seven that is ranked No. 1 in pass-rush win rate. The Cowboys' pressure rate of 50.2% is also the best mark in the league. Stafford has completed just 39.2% of his passes when pressured this season, ranking him 29th in the league. His passer rating is 92.8 when kept clean, but that number drops significantly to 58.8 when faced with pressure.
To alleviate some of the pressure on Stafford, especially on early downs, the Rams have decided to keep the ball on the ground more often as of late. The Rams have been much more balanced the last two weeks in their play-calling, dropping back to pass at two of their three lowest rates of the season.
The Rams will struggle to have success attacking with a more conservative game plan as Dallas gives up only 3.59 yards per carry to running backs. The Cowboys have stuffed runs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 25% attempts against them, fourth-best in the league.
Regardless of Sean McVay’s game plan on early downs in this game, the Rams are going to put Stafford in situations where he has to make plays against a vaunted Cowboys pass rush.
Rams vs. Cowboys
Betting Picks & Predictions
Simply put, when the Cowboys are the clear favorite under Prescott, they tend to cover the spread. In total throughout his career, the Dallas quarterback has covered 58.1% of games as a favorite. When Dallas is favored by more than a field goal, Prescott is 35-21 (62.5%) against the number.
Mike McCarthy has also thrived when installed as the betting favorite. He is 59.4% lifetime against the spread as the favorite over a 175-game sample size. More specifically, his teams are 80-47 (63%) against the number when favored by more than a field goal.
This is the perfect spot to back the Cowboys' superior roster.
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