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The New England Patriots (5-4) and Detroit Lions (6-2) will face off in the NFL Munich Game in Week 10. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Lions are favored by -2.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 49.5. The Lions are -152 favorites on the moneyline while the Patriots are +128 underdogs.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Lions predictions for the Munich Game.
Patriots vs Lions Prediction
- Patriots vs Lions pick: Lions -2.5
My Patriots vs Lions best bet is on the Lions to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Patriots vs Lions Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
- Patriots vs Lions Spread: Patriots +2.5, Lions -2.5
- Patriots vs Lions Total: 49.5
- Patriots vs Lions Moneyline: Patriots +128, Lions -152
Patriots vs Lions NFL Week 10 Preview
This is the last Sunday morning international game of the year, and it might be the best one yet. This is a legitimate possible Super Bowl matchup, but only if both defenses get their house in order.
The Lions defense is playing a little better lately with Brian Branch back on the field, but they still sit 24th in DVOA. The Patriots defense was absolutely shredded by Jordan Love last week, dropping them to 16th overall.
The Patriots have some players returning for this game, but nonetheless enter this game as the most injured team in the NFL. They'll be missing A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, TreVeyon Henderson, and Rhamondre Stevenson, which doesn't leave much for Drake Maye to work with.
Interestingly, the Patriots' passing attack should be the biggest mismatch in the game. New England ranks sixth in pass offense DVOA and is taking on the Lions' 24th-ranked pass defense.
The problem is the Patriots' offensive line is struggling and injured, which is a major concern against Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill. Maye has been pressured on 47 percent of his dropbacks, which is the third-highest rate in the league, and the Lions boast the seventh-highest pressure rate.
I think Drake Maye will find some big plays, but the Lions are the better team. The Detroit offense should keep the ball and move it efficiently to control the time of possession. That is a great way to handle Maye. The Patriots' pass rush is underwhelming, so the Lions will win in the trenches.
Patriots vs Lions Prediction, Betting Analysis
You know the drill on international games on a neutral field.
International favorites in non-Jaguars games are 31-15 against the spread (ATS). Favorites of three points or less are 18-5 ATS for a 78 percent cover rate.
This is also the exact spot you want to back Dan Campbell and Jared Goff. As a favorite against teams .500 or better, Campbell and Goff are 12-6-1 ATS together. On a neutral field, just take the better team.
Pick: Lions -2.5
Patriots vs Lions Same-Game Parlay
We should see a lot of points scored in this game, so let us build a negative correlation parlay escalator.
The Lions defense has allowed big passing production all season long. They've allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game until they faced an injured Malik Willis last week.
Drake Maye has two or more passing touchdowns in six straight games. He has three or more in four of those games. We are pairing Maye's passing touchdowns with the Detroit cover.
Pick: Drake Maye 2+ Pass TDs and Lions -2.5 (+266 at FanDuel)
Escalator: Drake Maye 3+ Pass TDs and Lions -2.5 (+828 at FanDuel)
