Week 10 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in his top NFL prop bets for Sunday, featuring picks for Chiefs vs Falcons, Texans vs Browns, Vikings vs Packers and more.
Let's get into his NFL Week 10 player props and best bets for Sunday, November 15.
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NFL Player Props Week 9
- Texans–Browns Same-Game Parlay
- James Cook Rush Attempts
- Gavin Bartholomew Receptions
- Patrick Mahomes Pass Completions
Texans vs Browns Parlay
When doing my deep dive for Texans-Browns, these are the four props I was considering for my prop of the game and I couldn’t decide between them.
I figured I’d just throw all four into a same-game parlay since they correlate perfectly and have a ton of overlapping factors working in their favor.
Parlay: Deshaun Watson INT, Woody Marks Over 58.5 Rushing Yards, C.J. Stroud Under 20.5 Pass Completions, Dalton Schultz Under 3.5 Receptions (+600)
James Cook Rushing Attempts
I usually have a pretty good feel for the Bills’ RB usage. Last week, I expected them to lean heavily into James Cook, which was why I liked Ray Davis Under 5.5 rush yards.
After the workload Cook has handled lately, including 31 carries on Monday, I’d expect Buffalo to lighten his load a bit against the Jets with the bigger goal of keeping him fresh for a deep playoff run.
It’s also a matchup where I expect Cook to break off more explosive runs. That can actually lower his floor in this market by letting him do more damage on fewer carries, while making it even more likely Davis/Ty Johnson mixes in to give Cook breathers.
Pick: James Cook Under 19.5 Rush Attempts (-114; DraftKings)
Gavin Bartholomew Receptions
Gavin Bartholomew has typically operated as T.J. Hockenson’s backup, while Benjamin Yurosek is more of Josh Oliver’s backup. I expect Bartholomew to inherit most of Hockenson’s role, obviously with a lower target rate.
But with Jauan Jennings out, Jordan Addison questionable, and Kirk Cousins likely giving this Vikings passing offense an immediate boost, I think the market is overlooking Bartholomew across the board.
Receptions is where I’m showing the most value.
Pick: Gavin Bartholomew Over 2.5 Receptions (-106)
Patrick Mahomes Pass Completions
I don't have a thorough writeup for this one, but it seems like Patrick Mahomes escaped a serious elbow injury and carries no injury designation for this game.
With Kenneth Walker III sidelined and Josh Downs now in the mix, I’m expecting the Chiefs to be a bit more pass heavy.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-122)
