Welcome back to another week of NFL betting. This week we are diving right back in with a full slate of sides, totals, props, escalators, parlays, and more.
We have a fun day of football ahead of us today with plenty of angles to attack. Let's get into my NFL Week 10 Mega Preview.
Download the Action Network app now for more NFL picks and analysis! If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
NFL Week 10 Picks, Props, Parlays
  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
Panthers vs Saints
It's the battle for the NFC South! The winner of this game will somehow be the outright division leader heading into Week 11.
The Saints have dominated in recent years, winning 14 of the last 19 matchups. Interestingly, the games are rarely close. Seven of the last 11 were won by 8+ points, including four decided by 19 or more.
The line movement has been strange. It moved from Panthers -1.5 on Sunday morning to Saints -2.5. That seems silly. The Saints were lucky to win in overtime while the Panthers were unlucky to lose to Denver after an incredibly dumb interception.
Carolina is also getting much healthier. Jaelan Phillips, Damien Lewis, Mike Jackson, and Will Lee were all limited practice participants. I have been downgrading Carolina for weeks due to cluster injuries, so getting those guys back is worth at least a point or more to the spread.
On paper, the best unit in the game is the Panthers offense. The Saints offense against the Panthers defense is 23rd vs. 23rd by DVOA. The Panthers offense versus the Saints defense is 13th versus 30th. Both teams are terrible against the run, but only Carolina can actually run the ball.
The Saints are allowing 113 rushing yards per game to running backs and allow the most fantasy points to the position. And that's despite already facing bad running teams like the Browns, Giants, and Raiders.
Chuba Hubbard has 13+ carries in five of his eight games. He had 79 or more yards in all five of those games and averaged just under 97 yards per game.
Hubbard's base rushing line of 72.5 yards is just too low. The Saints have allowed games of 101, 113, 145, and 156 yards to RBs, so the upside is massive. Hubbard already has a pair of 120-yard games this year and two 150-yard games in his career.
We are taking the Hubbard escalator to the moon.
And since these games are rarely close, let's also play a Panthers alt line. The Saints already have losses of eight, 10, and 21 points this year, and Carolina has two blowout wins.
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (bet365)
Escalator #1: Hubbard 100+ Rushing Yards (+250 at bet365)
Escalator #2: Hubbard 120+ Rushing Yards (+550 at bet365)
Escalator #3: Hubbard 150+ Rushing Yards (+1100 at bet365)
Pick: Panthers Alt Line -7.5 (+370 at FanDuel)
Correlation Play: Hubbard 100+ Rushing Yards and Panthers -7.5 (+761 at FanDuel)
| | | | | | | |
Vikings vs Packers
Three years later, the circle is complete.
Kirk Cousins is back in Minnesota, and Vikings fans are probably way too excited for a movie where we've already seen the ending.
But the only person more excited than the fans is Justin Jefferson.
In his last 17 games in which he's endured pathetic quarterback play, Jefferson averaged just 49 yards per game with only two games of 90 or more yards. Both of those games just happened to be against the Packers.
In his last 10 games against Green Bay, Jefferson is averaging 6.3 receptions and 90.3 yards with seven touchdowns. And in 54 healthy career games with Cousins, Jefferson averages 6.4 catches and 98.9 yards per game — literally double what he's been doing the past 17 games!
The Packers have already allowed 124 receptions to wide receivers this season, which is the most in the league. When they've faced elite receivers — Jefferson, Drake London, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon Ra St. Brown — they've allowed an average of 8.8 catches and 127 yards. All four had 8+ catches against Green Bay.
Cousins should absolutely feed Jefferson.
I also want in on Jefferson bounce-back futures. He currently has 31 catches for 393 yards, which paces out to a miserable season-ending stat line of just 935 yards. But if Jefferson resumes his historical pace with Cousins over the final nine games, he would add 58 catches and 890 yards. His season-long prediction market lines have some incredible value.
This is a really important game in general. Neither team can afford to lose because the loser drops to fourth place and out of the playoff picture.
The Vikings beat the Packers in Week 1. Jordan Love played better than any quarterback against Minnesota this season, throwing for 382 yards and two touchdowns, but he collapsed under pressure in the fourth quarter. The Packers' offensive line against the Brian Flores pressure packages is a major problem.
Minnesota has scored 42% of its points in the fourth quarter this season, the second highest rate in the league. The Packers score 16% of their points in the fourth quarter, dead last.
Give Cousins some time to settle in early. We will take the Vikings to win the fourth quarter outright.
Pick: Justin Jefferson 8+ Receptions (+200 at Fanatics)
Escalator #1: Jefferson 150+ Receiving Yards (+880 at DraftKings)
Pick: Vikings 4th Quarter Moneyline (+150 at Kalshi)
Future: Jefferson 800.5+ Receiving Yards YES (-245 at Polymarket)
Future: Jefferson 1000.5+ Receiving Yards YES (-150 at Kalshi)
Future: Jefferson 1200.5+ Receiving Yards YES (+156 at Polymarket)
Future: Jefferson 90.5+ Receptions YES (+456 at Polymarket)
| | | | | | | |
Jaguars vs Titans
It is hard to imagine a bigger mismatch in the NFL right now.
I said on the futures show that the Jaguars are the most balanced team in the AFC. They added Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis, cementing a top seven offense and defense.
The Titans might be the next most balanced team because they are bad at everything. By DVOA, Tennessee is bottom five at everything except running the ball. That is the one thing Jacksonville absolutely does not allow you to do. The Jaguars are a massive pass funnel, so good luck to Cam Ward.
The Jaguars' only real weakness is in the trenches, but that is not a huge concern against Tennessee. With the Giants coming up next, the Jaguars should be 9-2 heading into Chicago with real Trevor Lawrence MVP hype building.
Jacksonville has won seven of the last eight matchups against the Titans, sweeping them last year by a combined score of 66-10. Robert Saleh is going up against Liam Coen, and Coen does not like him at all. Jacksonville is coming off extra rest, essentially enjoying a bye week after that weird Thursday night game against Baltimore.
I do not mind the Jaguars' full-game line at -10.5, but I love the first half line of -6.5. The Titans have scored exactly three points in the second quarter all season. That accounts for 2% of their total points, while the next lowest team sits at 20%.
The Titans score 49% of their points in the fourth quarter, strictly relying on garbage time. Tennessee is last in first-half possession and last in first-half points per game at 6.3. The Jaguars rank second in first-half points per game at 15.9.
Pick: Jaguars 1st Half -6.5 (-108 at Kalshi)
| | | | | | | |
Dolphins vs Colts
I am sorry but this line is just too low.
The Colts did not end up doing much at the trade deadline after all. There is not much left at wide receiver without Josh Downs or Keenan Allen, but they did not trade Jonathan Taylor or Daniel Jones. Neither of those guys excites me much, but do you know who Daniel Jones is not? He is not Kyle McCord.
McCord is replacing the injured Malik Willis for Miami, and the line only moved one point. Both of these teams stink, but the Dolphins stink much more with McCord.
Miami beat the Jets by three points, but the Dolphins have not covered this line in any of their losses. I do not like the Colts at all and still make this line Indy -6.5.
The Colts' rushing attack is their one true strength, ranking in the top 10 by DVOA. Now they do not have to pretend to hold Taylor back for a trade.
That ground game combined with a massive Indianapolis special-teams advantage over the 31st-ranked Miami special-teams unit should be plenty. The Dolphins still want to lose, and the Colts cannot even tank properly without their first round pick.
Pick: Colts -3.5 (Caesars)
| | | | | | | |
Bills vs Jets
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.
I swear the Jets should have been up 20-10 on the Chiefs at halftime last week. The Jets are not terrible — Geno Smith is playing well and the offense is moving the football.
The Bills have dominated this rivalry, winning 10-of-12 games and taking four of the last five by 20 or more points. The Jets' defensive line is banged up and was not very good anyway, so the Bills' power rushing attack should win out. The Jets have given up 26, 28, 38, and 35 points over their last four games, so this is probably just another blowout.
But what if it is not?
The Bills defense remains eminently beatable, which is exactly why their Monday night dominance over the Vikings was so shocking.
The Jets offense has been good enough to move the ball on this Bills defense. They are pretty good until they get into scoring range, so maybe they get a little lucky here. It also looks windy with some trends pointing to the under, which usually gives the underdog an advantage.
Moneyline underdogs of +300 to +475 since 2023 in the early Sunday window are 23-31 straight up for a massive 91% ROI. They are 4-4 this year. That includes crazy upsets like the Giants over the Texans, Saints over the Ravens, and Washington over Seattle.
The trend is still good in non-divisional games at a 54% ROI, but it is elite in division games. In division matchups, these massive underdogs are above .500 at 12-10 straight up for an absurd 146% ROI. History says to back big home 'dogs in division games because weird things happen.
I make this line closer to Jets +4.5, which would be priced around +185. We are getting incredible value here.
J-E-T-S. Jets. Jets. Jets.
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+376 at Kalshi)
| | | | | | | |
Rams vs Cardinals
This is just the goofiest game. It is going to feel exactly like a preseason game.
Puka Nacua is on injured reserve, Terrance Ferguson is still out, and Michael Wilson is out for the season. The feature wide receivers in this game are Simi Fehoko and Reggie Virgil against Konata Mumpfield and Tutu Atwell. Carson Beck is making his first career start for the injured Gardner Minshew.
The Rams are grinding out wins with their defense and their run game. Credit where it is due: Myles Garrett looked fantastic in his return.
The Cardinals have the No. 13 rush defense by DVOA, so they should be able to hang for a while. The pass defense, however, is awful — but who is Matthew Stafford going to throw the ball to? It is hard to imagine how either team scores much here.
Both teams start very slow and are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in the first half. They are both 7-2 to the first-half under, tying for the best mark in the league.
The Cardinals have scored under 40% of their points in the first half, ranking 29th in the NFL. The last four Arizona halftime scores are 14-3, 14-3, 13-6, and 9-9. All of those easily slide under this number.
The Rams' halftime scores this year are 10-6, 10-9, 9-9, 13-6, 16-0, 14-3, and 14-3. They have been below this number seven times already.
This is just nothing like the Rams offense we imagined in the preseason. I have the full-game line at Rams -6, so there is actually value on the Cardinals.
Pick: First Half Under 19.5 (+108 at FanDuel)
| | | | | | | |
49ers vs Cowboys
Maybe this is just my 90s childhood nostalgia talking, but this is such an exciting matchup.
San Francisco at Dallas in the big Sunday afternoon window just feels like a massive game. The narratives stemming from this one will be juicy no matter what happens.
If Kyle Shanahan drops 40 points in Dallas, the Cowboys are cooked. If the Cowboys upset the No. 1 49ers, the Cowboys are back.
The 49ers have won all four games over the last four years, including twice in the playoffs. There is little reason the 49ers offense should not do whatever it wants against the Cowboys defense.
Shanahan has scored 30, 42, and 33 points in his last three regular season games against Dallas. San Francisco already has four games of 32 or more points this year. All sorts of trends point to the over, but the total sits at 55.5. I honestly do not mind it, or just playing the San Francisco team total over.
The Cowboys' neutral run rate is way up over their last three games. That is not great against a top-five run defense, but it could definitely slow the pace of the game down. I need some action on this game, so let us go to the props.
Kaelon Black has eight, 12, and 11 rushing attempts over his last three games. It is not huge volume, but he has stepped back into a steady role.
Christian McCaffrey usually takes 12-16 carries for around 65 yards, and he is not running particularly great right now. Dallas has allowed the third-most rushing yards and fourth-most attempts, averaging 24 carries for 113 yards to opposing running backs. That leaves about 8-12 carries for Black at his 4.5 yards per carry average. We will take his yardage over and sprinkle 10-plus attempts.
If you are on the prediction markets, how about a sourpuss future?
Mike Evans has 420 yards in six games. He has not played in a month and left two of those six games injured. I love Evans, but this actually shows exactly how important he is to the 49ers.
There are nine games left, but he is out for this game and might rest in Week 18 if all goes according to plan for San Francisco.
That leaves seven games. Evans can probably stay under 600 yards even if he plays three or four more games. He is just too important to risk another injury. The 49ers have to keep him in bubble wrap for the playoffs.
Pick: Kaelon Black Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
Pick: Kaelon Black 10+ Rushing Attempts (+200 at bet365)
Prediction Market Pick: Mike Evans 600.5+ Receiving Yards NO (+1567 at Polymarket)
| | | | | | | |
Steelers vs Bengals
This is the easiest side of the week for me. It is so easy that it actually feels like a trap.
This is another horrible scheduling spot. Cincinnati is flying back from Spain with no rest, while Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week.
This is a massive division game. Pittsburgh won the first matchup, so a sweep would be devastating for Cincinnati. It is also a sneaky big spot for Joe Burrow MVP stock because it is hard to win the award as a five-seed.
Rivalry history says these teams have split three of the last four years. However, the road team won four of those eight meetings, and six were decided by one score.
I think Pittsburgh is very live to win this game outright, and getting the hook at +3.5 means it can keep it close and still cover.
The Bengals defense is the weakest of the four units on the field by the numbers, sitting around league average. How much has Dexter Lawrence really changed things?
This is a huge test because Pittsburgh has the best rushing attack by DVOA. Center Zach Frazier is moving guys and Jaylen Warren is a top-five running back who went for 127 yards in the first matchup. Aaron Rodgers also matched Burrow statistically in that game.
The Bengals have absolutely no shot to run the ball in this game against the No. 1-rated Pittsburgh run defense.
How improved is the Bengals' offensive line? Amarius Mims has been great at right tackle, but Pittsburgh has multiple elite pass rushers to test them. The Steelers have been great against quarterbacks and receivers all year, allowing only seven passing touchdowns.
History says to back AFC North underdogs of 3.5 points or less. They are 60-37-4 ATS for a 62% cover rate.
Rodgers as an underdog of more than three points in his career is 20-12 ATS, including a 4-1 mark with Pittsburgh. He is 12-3 ATS as a 3.5- or 4-point underdog. Rodgers is also 11-4-1 ATS coming out of a bye week.
Furthermore, Mike McCarthy is 13-5-1 ATS off a bye week, making him the best coach in the Bet Labs system in this spot. The scheduling swing is incredibly significant.
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (DraftKings)
| | | | | | | |
