The New England Patriots (12-3) and New York Jets (3-12) meet in NFL Week 17 on Sunday, December 28. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Patriots are 13.5-point favorites over the Jets on the spread (Patriots -13.5), with the over/under set at 42.5. New England is a -950 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New York is +625 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Patriots vs. Jets prediction for today's AFC East clash.
Patriots vs Jets Prediction
- Patriots vs Jets pick: Jets Moneyline (+625)
My Patriots vs Jets best bet is the Jets moneyline. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Jets Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -950 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
Patriots vs Jets NFL Week 17 Preview
Late in the season, sometimes spots like this arise where an elite team is coming off a huge emotional win, and then they have to turn around and play a weird division game — like the Patriots coming off a win over the Ravens and then hitting the road to face the lowly Jets today.
This is the second meeting of the season between these two teams. The Patriots already beat the Jets by a score of 27-14 in a Thursday Night Football matchup back in Week 11 — the Jets actually covered the spread in that game as big road underdogs.
Now, the Jets are at home for this game, and there’s a non-zero chance the Patriots lay an egg here.
The Patriots’ offensive line is still an issue. Jared Wilson is out. They’re still without Will Campbell. They also picked up some injuries on the defensive side of the ball last week as Harold Landry and Robert Spillane have been ruled out.
Several of the Patriots' most explosive offensive players are either out right now, or trending that way.
TreVeyon Henderson was basically the Patriots' entire offense in the first matchup of the season between these teams, and his status is in doubt due to a concussion. Kayshon Boutte, one of their top receivers all year, has been ruled out with a concussion. DeMario Douglas is questionable with a hamstring injury. Mack Hollins is also sidelined.
This feels like a classic letdown spot in a second division game. We see this every year at this point in the season.
This line seems extremely inflated with the Patriots nearly two-touchdown favorites. The Patriots rank around 17th in DVOA. This implies the Jets are something like a -12 team, which might be close to accurate, but this is still a professional football team playing a divisional game for pride.
The Patriots have also been incredibly lucky this season. They’ve had the easiest schedule in the last 25 years, not even accounting for all the backups, rookies, and benched quarterbacks they’ve faced. Eight of the 11 quarterbacks they played were backups, rookies, or guys who were later benched.
The Patriots have basically beaten Josh Allen and then a bunch of nobodies this year. Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this year, and that’s one of the “best” names on their résumé.
On fourth down, the Patriots are 16-of-22 (73%) with a bad run game. Their opponents are 8-of-23 (34%). The Pats have fumbled 20 times and lost only eight of them. Their opponents have fumbled 11 times and lost eight.
Drake Maye has been incredibly fun to watch, but he’s gotten away with a ton of bad throws. He has 16 turnover-worthy plays and only eight interceptions. Last week alone, he probably should’ve had a couple more turnovers.
On the other side, the Jets are converting 46% of their fourth-down attempts, while their opponents are at 74%.
The Jets have fumbled 16 times and lost 10 of them. Their opponents have fumbled 14 times and lost only four. They don’t have a single interception on the defensive side of the ball this season; a historically unlucky feat.
If there were ever a game where one team has been extremely lucky and the other historically unlucky, this is it.
Patriots vs Jets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Let’s get real spicy and go with the Jets moneyline.
Obviously, you are more than welcome to take the points on the spread if you’re not feeling the outright win, but at +600 or better, I’m going to sprinkle a little on the heavy road underdogs.
More realistically, the Jets probably get the backdoor cover on the spread in an ugly home loss in this spot.
However, If the Jets see a couple of lucky bounces go their way, I could see them pulling off the upset in this game.
I don't feel great about it, but I’ll reluctantly take a shot with the Jets moneyline in Week 17.
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+625)
Spread
I'm forgoing the points on the spread and taking the Jets moneyline.
Moneyline
My Jets vs Patriots betting prediction is on New York to win outright on the moneyline.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
