The New York Giants and Washington Commanders clash in NFL Week 1 on Sunday, September 7. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. Giants vs Commanders will be broadcast on FOX.
The Commanders are 6-point favorites over the Giants on the spread (Commanders -6), with the total set at over/under 45.5 total points. Washington is a -270 favorite to win outright, while New York is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Giants vs Commanders predictions and NFL picks for Sunday afternoon.
Giants vs Commanders Prediction
- Giants vs Commanders pick: Giants +6 (-110)
My Commanders vs. Giants best bet is on New York to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Giants vs Commanders Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Giants vs Commanders NFL Week 1 Preview
I'm going with the Giants +6 at the Commanders in Week 1, and there are a few reasons why I like New York in this spot.
First off, take a look at the two matchups between these teams last season.
The Commanders won both games by relatively slim margins of three and five points (27-22, 21-18). Not all that impressive, and the Giants should be better this year than they were last year.
When Russell Wilson and the Steelers faced Washington last season, Wilson threw for three touchdowns en route to a victory for Pittsburgh. So, you also have that.
I also think the Commanders may be due for some regression on offense after converting on third and fourth down at a historic rate last season, despite seemingly managing to improve their roster on that side of the ball this past offseason.
However, on early downs, Jayden Daniels' numbers were pretty average — he ranked 20th in success rate. Many people seem to think Daniels is destined to follow the C.J. Stroud career arc, and I could see that happening, but personally, I view that as somewhat lazy analysis.
I don't expect him to be bad; Daniels proved what he was capable of last season. But naturally, I think we'll see him come back down to earth a little bit in his second NFL campaign.
Meanwhile, the Giants managed to improve upon what was already a solid defensive roster this past offseason. They drafted Abdul Carter with the third pick in the NFL draft. They also added Paulson Adebo and Jevon Holland.
The Giants have good players now at pretty much every level of their defense. And standing across from them in Week 1 will be a Commanders offense that has not played much together following a decent amount of turnover this past offseason.
Accompanying Terry McLaurin, they have two new receivers expected to play key roles, with Deebo Samuel coming over from San Francisco, plus the addition of Jaylin Lane via the draft.
Washington rebuilt its running back room quite a bit as well after deciding to move on from Brian Robinson and replacing him with rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Ultimately, these were probably wise decisions, but they may come back to bite them early this season as the Commanders try to iron out all the wrinkles following the new arrivals and departures of several key pieces.
Giants vs Commanders Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Giants are 6-point underdogs against the Commanders to open the season, and Week 1 is one of the best times to bet on divisional underdogs.
Divisional underdogs in Week 1 of the season are 67-44 (60%) against the spread over the last two decades, courtesy of our Action Labs database.
All the trends seem to align with my general analysis and expectations for these two squads entering the season, so I'm going to take the six points with the G-Men in Washington this week.
Pick: Giants +6 (-110)
Spread
My Commanders vs. Giants betting prediction is on New York to cover the spread at -6.
Moneyline
While I am betting on the Giants to cover the spread in this spot, I will not be dabbling in the moneyline market.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this matchup.
