Bills vs Jets Odds & Prediction: Expert Picks a Buffalo Bounce Back
Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson (left) and Josh Allen (right).
Bills vs Jets Odds | NFL Week 11
Bills vs Jets odds are on the move for NFL Week 11, with the spread increasing to Buffalo -8.5 at most books with a game total over/under of 39. For my Bills vs Jets prediction, I'm not deterred by Buffalo's recent struggles and am backing them to cover.
The Bills' season hit a new low in a last-second home loss to the Broncos on Monday Night Football. The Bills now sit at 5-5 as they enter the tougher portion of their schedule; the playoffs look to be an increasingly difficult task. Since Monday, the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey but also saw two wild-card contenders lose their starting quarterbacks — Deshaun Watson and Joe Burrow — for the remainder of the season.
Allen hasn't had much success in the recent past against the Jets, but is the market now undervaluing the Bills at home? Find out in my NFL Week 11 betting preview on this AFC East rivalry game, which includes a Bills vs Jets pick.
Bills vs Jets Prediction
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jets and Bills match up statistically:
Jets vs. Bills DVOA Breakdown
The biggest concerns for the Bills over the last month haven't been on the offensive side of the ball, but the defense.
There's been a ton of dialogue about Josh Allen's turnovers, but the reality is the defense has been a bottom-five unit since Week 6. All of the injuries to key players at each level of the defense have hurt their efficiency metrics and have made it hard for them to cover as big favorites.
It's not that the Bills have necessarily allowed a ton of points, but their defense is allowing a ton of methodical and lengthy drives, which is shortening games and taking possessions away from the prolific offense. Throw in some bad close-game variance, bad-luck turnovers and bad decision-making turnovers and the result is a 5-5 Buffalo team despite excellent underlying offensive metrics.
There are real issues with Buffalo's offense — the lack of a secondary option outside of Stefon Diggs is the biggest one — but a lot of the struggles are driven by absurd turnover fortune and general bad luck.
Allen, who leads the NFL in interceptions, has been careless at times, but his turnover-worthy play rate is actually better than it has been in past seasons. His career average is 3.8%, and it’s down to 2.4% this season.
The Bills offense is No. 1 in rushing success rate, No. 2 in passing success rate, No. 1 in overall success rate and No. 2 in EPA per play when you exclude turnovers. The biggest criticism of Dorsey was his lack of structure for Allen and his poor play calling sequencing.
That's something that could be improved to help the Bills be more methodical overall.
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Bet New York vs. Buffalo at FanDuel
The Jets' decision to stick with Zach Wilson is borderline malpractice given the talent level of the roster.
Their defense has been a dominant unit all season, with three corners who rank inside the top 15th percentile in separation metrics. An underrated pass rush that is top five in PFF grades and top 10 in pass rush win rate. They've slowed down Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Allen this year. The Raiders had just one offensive touchdown last week.
It's hard to envision Buffalo having a ton of success, but the Jets offense is so bad that no defense is good enough to overcome that.
The Jets are 31st in yards per drive offensively, ahead of only the Giants. The only chance the Jets have is Breece Hall breaking an explosive play or two. Otherwise, the Jets offense is 32nd in dropback success rate and 31st in EPA per drop back for a reason.
There are teams signing guys off their practice squads and getting more offense than the Jets are on a week-to-week basis at the moment. The defense has been incredible, but Buffalo's offense is too good for New York to stay in this game.
Jets vs. Bills
Betting Picks & Predictions
Buffalo began the season 3-1 and covered three of those four games against the spread rather comfortably. As the defensive injuries began to mount, the Bills became considerably inflated in the market. They are 2-4 straight up in their last six games and have failed to cover in six consecutive contests.
If you listen around the league, the narrative is that the Bills are in trouble and the playoffs are in danger. Allen is still elite, the offense can move the ball on anyone and barring a ton of positive turnover variance, it's hard to see the Jets staying in this game.
I'd lay -7 or better with Buffalo to get right.
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