Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime TD props for the Conference Championships of the NFL playoffs on Sunday, January 25.
If you plan to tail these AFC and NFC Championship Game TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday's Conference Championship Games.
Patriots vs. Broncos
Quarterback play for the Broncos will obviously take a hit with QB Jarrett Stidham starting over Bo Nix, but I don’t think it will be as much of a free-fall.
In fact, I think most of the value in this game is on Broncos TD scorers because nobody really knows what to expect from Stidham.
I expect Broncos head coach Sean Payton to have some scripted plays coming out of each half to allow the Broncos to dink-and-dunk while playing the field-position game.
I know the Patriots were able to rattle QB C.J. Stroud and hold the Texans to only one passing TD, but I’m running right back to WR1 Courtland Sutton at +280.
Sutton still saw nine targets in the Divisional Round, while leading all Broncos in snaps and routes run. The Patriots may have CB Christian Gonzalez back, but that’s a matchup where I give the edge to Sutton, as we saw Gonzalez have a few issues in coverage last week.
The Patriots are a bit tricky because while they will clearly have the advantage on offense, I’m still not sure I love many options on this side.
QB Drake Maye threw for three touchdowns last week, but the Patriots couldn’t generate many explosives while mostly getting excellent field position due to all the Texans' turnovers.
The Broncos defense can get pressure (top-three during the regular season), while also ranking top-three in total passes defended. So, if we’re going to bet on a pass-catcher, let’s take WR Kayshon Boutte at +280.
We just saw him make an incredible TD catch against All-Pro CB Derek Stingley Jr. last week, and he has run a route at a 75% clip through both playoff games.
I know there's a chance he might see some coverage from CB Patrick Surtain, but I expect him to line up and shadow WR Stefon Diggs a bit more, which should open up more opportunities for Boutte.
Maye is one of the best deep-ball throwers in the NFL; Boutte leads the Patriots in deep targets while also leading the team in first-read target share through two playoff games.
Verdict: Courtland Sutton +310 | Kayshon Boutte +280
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Rams vs. Seahawks
Some people would argue this game is the real Super Bowl, and one of those people would be me.
Look, I think the Patriots-Broncos could be a fun matchup due to the uncertainty surrounding Stidham, but both would be underdogs to the winner of the NFC Championship Game.
The last time these two teams played, I was all over TE AJ Barner at +250, and we were rewarded with a TD late in the fourth quarter.
However, Barner’s TD odds have dropped below +200 for this game, and that’s just too rich of a price for a player that wasn’t even targeted in the Divisional Round against the 49ers.
This time, we’re going to go back to WR Rashid Shaheed at +380.
We hit this bet last week because we knew that San Francisco struggled on special teams and Shaheed scored on the opening kickoff.
Now, it won’t be that easy again today, but one of the Rams' weaknesses during the regular season was on special teams — they closed the season ranked 26th in DVOA in that category.
When they played last time, Shaheed scored a pivotal punt return TD to set up the Seahawks' comeback and he actually tends to see a higher target rate vs. zone coverages since joining the Seahawks, which the Rams played at a top-seven rate during the regular season.
With the Rams likely focussing in on stopping WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I fully expect QB Sam Darnold to spread the ball around, which could lead to more targets for Shaheed. At +380, Shaheed is the only Seahawk I’m showing value on.
This pick for the Rams is going to be extremely boring, but if WR Davante Adams is listed at plus-odds to score, and he’s healthy, I’m going to him every time.
I get that WR Puka Nacua is balling out and will likely be QB Matthew Stafford’s security blanket between the 20s, but once we get inside the 20, Adams has been the star of the show.
Adams led the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line (23) despite missing three games, and this exact moment is the reason why they signed him.
The Rams wanted a premier WR who can win at the goal line regardless of the matchup, and that’s Adams.
He didn’t play in the second matchup vs. the Seahawks, and in the first matchup, he only had one catch (on eight targets), but it was for a one-yard TD.
Stafford is going to feed Adams in this spot as much as he can, and when they played the first time, Adams was priced at -120 to score. In the biggest game of the year, we've got to go with the Rams' top goal-line receiving option at +125.
Verdict: Davante Adams +125 | Rashid Shaheed +380
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