Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 16 on Sunday, December 21.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 16 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 16.
NFL Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Bills vs Browns |
| Jets vs Saints |
| Vikings vs Giants |
| Buccaneers vs Panthers |
| Chiefs vs Titans |
| Chargers vs Cowboys |
| Bengals vs Dolphins |
| Falcons vs Cardinals |
| Jaguars vs Broncos |
| Steelers vs Lions |
| Raiders vs Texans |
Bills vs. Browns
Given how much man defense the Browns play, along with ranking first in single-high safety, the data points to Bills TE Dalton Kincaid having a big week. He has the best receiver metrics against those types of coverages, and may as well be a full-time receiver in this offense.
Kincaid may score but I don’t really love the value in this spot with how well the Browns have defended tight ends this season.
Instead, I’m looking to a Bills WR and this week. Let’s take a crack on WR Joshua Palmer at +500.
Palmer hasn’t done much since coming to Buffalo, but he leads the team in target share against man defenses and almost scored last week against the Patriots.
Browns' CB Denzel Ward is also likely out, making it an easier matchup for outside receivers.
The Browns defense has allowed an outside receiver to score on them in four straight games with five TDs allowed to WR in this span.
The Browns offense has potential to go either way in a given game where they either get completely shut down or can make a game of it — especially facing this Bills defense that has had issues defending the run all season.
If you want to run with RB Quinshon Judkins to score 2+ TDs at +650, I wouldn’t be against it since the Bills allow the most rushing TDs in the NFL, but I’m going to stick with TE Harold Fannin again at +275.
Fannin has been the top target in the Browns offense, no matter who is at QB, and with or without TE David Njoku, Fannin has a clear role in this passing game.
In four games with Sanders as the starter, he’s scored in two of them, while leading the team in targets-per-route-run and has two end zone targets.
To put it in perspective, Fannin has ran the same amount of routes as WR1 Jerry Jeudy, but nearly doubles him in target share and first read targets. He IS the passing offense.
Verdict: Josh Palmer +500 | Harold Fannin +300
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Jets vs. Saints
The Saints play a lot of zone and single-high safety. They also play Cover 3 at third-highest rate in the NFL.
OH MY GAWD!! That sounds like Jets' WR Adonai Mitchell’s music!
Mitchell (+350) has been on a tear since becoming a Jet, as he leads the team in targets-per-route-run with five end zone targets.
I mentioned how the Saints defense plays because Mitchell has thrived against those coverages and could be in line to score again if the Jets get into another trailing game script on the road in New Orleans.
The Jets defense is coming off a game where they just allowed QB Trevor Lawrence to have five passing TDs, and have now dropped to last in defensive DVOA vs. the pass and 30th against WR1s.
For this one, I’m going to keep it real simple and take WR Chris Olave at +180.
Olave is the clear WR1 in the Saints offense, and Devaughn Vele is injured. So, Olave and TE Juwan Johnson are the only proven receiving threats for the New Orleans offense entering this week.
Olave already led the team in end zone targets and target share prior to the QB Tyler Shough taking over, and that trend has continued with four end zone targets and 13 deep targets. To put that in perspective, no other Saint has more than one in either category.
If you want to take a flier on WR Kevin Austin Jr. at +550, who will fill in for Vele, that would work too since he essentially took over for him after he got hurt, but I still think Olave will be the one to score.
Verdict: Adonai Mitchell +350 | Chris Olave +180
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Vikings vs. Giants
One of the worst run defenses in the NFL facing arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL.
If I’m betting any Vikings this week, I’m out on QB JJ McCarthy to help me make it happen. Sure, he can look decent in moments, but there’s still too many throws that drive you crazy to feel great about betting WRs Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison.
Instead, this sets up well for RB Jordan Mason to get another score, as the Giants rank last in defensive DVOA vs. the run with 19 rushing TDs allowed (bottom-five in the NFL).
I think head coach Kevin O’Connell will want to keep McCarthy from having to make tough throws unless he needs to.
Another factor is that defenses will be ready for McCarthy scrambles now that he scored another rushing TD against Dallas.
I expect the Giants to adjust with a spy in the box, but that means the RB has easier lanes to run, which benefits Mason.
Giants QB Jaxson Dart may get hurt in one of these games with his reckless scrambles, but I’ll give him credit that he will take some hits to push the ball downfield.
I know the Giants have mentioned that they want to reduce his amount of scrambles, but he still ran the ball nine times in Week 15, with two of those coming in the red zone.
With that kind of volume, and having seven rushing TDs on the season, I can’t pass on Dart when he’s listed at +200 or better.
Verdict: Jordan Mason +200 | Jaxson Dart +210
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Buccaneers vs. Panthers
After one game back, I’ve seen enough. Bucs' WR Mike Evans is scoring this week against the Panthers.
Evans only played 55% of snaps in Week 15, but still saw a team-high of 12 targets with an end zone target that he dropped, which could've been a score.
It’s clear QB Baker Mayfield makes Evans a priority, and he’s a player that sees targets regardless of zone or man coverages.
Last year, Evans cooked the Panthers for three touchdowns, 20 catches and over 200 yards receiving.
The Panthers rank 30th in defensive DVOA vs. WR1s, and outside WRs such as Jauan Jennings, Chris Olave, and Davante Adams have all had big games against this secondary over the last three weeks.
I’m likely laddering him for two touchdowns as well, given the stakes of this game could seal the deal for Tampa to win the division.
With this being the biggest game of QB Bryce Young’s career, his TD odds are intriguing at +700. His scramble rate has taken a massive jump over the last month with 30% of total scrambles this season coming in just the last three games.
Facing a Bucs defense that blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the league, that may lead to more scrambles near the goal line, as Young’s scramble rate goes way up against the blitz.
The Bucs are a strong run defense up the middle, but they’ve been beaten by QBs on the outside lately.
This is a game where the scrambling element needs to be an option for the Panthers, and at +700, I like this TD price to find out if Young is willing to use his legs to extend drives and keep the Bucs off balance.
Verdict: Mike Evans +180 | Bryce Young +700
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Chiefs vs. Titans
I’m not really sure where the Chiefs go this week, as this is their first irrelevant game (excluding Week 18s) in almost a decade.
After being eliminated, I’d assume the Chiefs would want to feature their younger talent, but they did pay TE Travis Kelce over 12 million dollars to play in 2025, so I expect KC to try and get their money’s worth and have him on the field to ride out potentially his final season.
With Kelce listed at +300 to score a TD, that’s a pretty decent price for a game with QB Gardner Minshew, who I expect to lean on his veterans and target Kelce whenever possible.
Facing the Titans, who haven’t been particularly good at defending any position, and have allowed seven TDs to TEs this year, let’s just bank on Kelce when we are getting his highest Anytime TD odds in 5+ years.
Last week, we cashed in on Titans TE Gunnar Helm against the Niners, but this week, I think we pivot back to WR Chimere Dike at +350. He’s got three touchdowns on the season, with a return TD as well, and leads the team in red zone targets.
Dike lines up all across the field, so he should be able to avoid CB Trent McDuffie if he comes back to play.
Cam Ward is also an intriguing long shot play at +800, but his scramble rate is so hit or miss, I’d rather just bet on a Titans WR this week.
Verdict: Travis Kelce +300 | Chimere Dike +360
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Chargers vs. Cowboys
The Chargers play a lot of zone and a top-five rate of two high safeties, and frankly, are a pretty tough pass defense overall. However, they have a slight weakness with tight ends, ranking 28th in defensive DVOA vs. the position.
I do expect the Cowboys to still have some success throwing the ball to outside receivers, and if you’re giving me WR George Pickens at +180, I’m going to take it every time.
Pickens hasn’t scored in a few games, but playing indoors, the potential for a deep end zone target is on the table anytime the Cowboys pass the 50-yard line.
I know you may want go with TE Jake Ferguson since the Chargers weakness vs. TEs, but Pickens shouldn’t ever be over +150 in this offense.
As for Cowboys TEs, let’s dabble on a long shot like TE3 Brevyn Spann-Ford. He scored earlier this season and has been running routes in the red zone, and as a big 6 '7" target, he could be someone QB Dak Prescott targets in the end zone if wideouts like CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are covered.
I’ve talked about how I’ve been wrong on picking Chargers TD scorers over the recent stretch, and I think part of it was banking on QB Justin Herbert to still be effective with the hand injury.
The Chargers have still gone on to win those three games, but Herbert’s passing TDs total (4) and overall pass attempts have dropped off a cliff during that stretch.
Now, he gets a Cowboys defense that is one of the worst in the NFL at defending the pass and has allowed the most TDs to WRs. So, let's go back to WR Keenan Allen at +210.
I know he hasn’t scored in a long time (seven games), but he has the best receiver metrics on the team vs. zone defenses, and the Cowboys play zone at top-eight rate in the NFL.
Also, if WR Quentin Johnston doesn’t end up playing, sprinkle on KeAndre Lambert-Smith at +1200, as he played a season-high 32% of snaps last week with Johnston out and caught a TD.
Verdict: George Pickens +180 | Keenan Allen +210 | Sprinkle on Brevyn Spann-Ford +1200 | Sprinkle on KeAndre Lambert-Smith +1200 (if Quentin Johnston is inactive)
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Bengals vs. Dolphins
Dolphins' QB Quinn Ewers is getting his first start for Miami with the Bengals coming to town. So, this pick is pretty obvious, and it's TE Darren Waller.
Waller scored twice last week against the Steelers, and now gets the most favorable matchup for opposing TEs in the NFL in Cincinnati.
The Bengals have allowed the most TDs to TEs this season (12) and rank last in targets, catches, and yards to the position.
With a rookie QB in his first start, expect Ewers to lean on reliable targets like WR Jaylen Waddle and Waller.
The Bengals were a go-to choice for me when trying to find TD scorers over the last few games with QB Joe Burrow, but last week's game against the Ravens was ROUGH!!
The Bengals were shut out and couldn't really get anything going on offense, but I still think WR Mitchell Tinsley was the right call. He only got two targets last week, but one was in end zone and another led to a key DPI to put the Bengals in scoring range.
The Ravens pass defense is way tougher than the Dolphins, who are 27th in defensive DVOA vs. the pass, while ranking 23rd vs. the deep ball.
Now, WR Ja’Marr Chase could just get spammed with 15+ targets to ruin this, but if WR Tee Higgins continues to be out, we know Tinsley will be on the outside with some 1-on-1 coverage.
So, let's ride with Tinsley again at +350.
Verdict: Darren Waller +280 | Mitchell Tinsley +350 (if Tee Higgins is inactive)
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Falcons vs. Cardinals
I haven’t done this yet for a game all season, but I’m passing altogether on Falcons–Cardinals for TD bets.
Most sportsbooks have eight or more players at less than +200 to score in a game with a total of 48.5.
This makes it difficult to find value near the top, which means you’d have to dumpster dive to find value on a third-string TE or WR4 that only plays a handful of snaps.
In a matchup where either QB could become a pumpkin in an instant and so many players dealing with injuries, I just don't see enough of an edge anywhere to feel comfortable betting a TD scorer in this game. Hard pass!
Verdict: Pass on this game. Not enough value.
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Jaguars vs. Broncos
Last week, I went with TE Nate Adkins for the Broncos because I suspected Denver would scheme something up for a big long shot, and while I guessed wrong, we did see a Tyler Badie score a TD at +2200.
That’s why I think when betting Broncos TD scorers, you always need to consider someone down the oddsboard. This time, I’m going with WR Marvin Mims Jr. at +500.
Mims hasn’t scored as much this year but is still an explosive weapon who sees a lot of deep targets in this Broncos offense, and even some red zone carries depending on the matchup. He’s also been returning kicks for Denver, so there’s upside he could score on that front too.
Considering he has only two less deep targets than Troy Franklin or Courtland Sutton, despite playing two less games, I think there’s upside to score on the Jaguars zone defense (top four rate) that has given up 13 TDs and has the third-highest target rate to WRs in the NFL.
I’ve gone through every player on the Jaguars to see which one has the best matchup and could possibly score on this tough secondary. The natural answer should be WR Jakobi Meyers, but in his time with Jacksonville, they’ve lined him up on the outside at over a 75% rate, which is opposite in his time in Las Vegas.
If Meyers is lining up on the outside and potentially seeing CB Patrick Surtain, then I’m out on him and Brian Thomas Jr. for this matchup given their odds are +250 or less to score.
If you’re going to take a Jaguars WR, take one that sees more snaps in the slot and has inflated odds. This week, that applies to WR Tim Patrick at +1000.
Patrick has the highest targets-per-route-run vs. man defenses since Meyers came to the team, while having the second-most red zone targets in that stretch.
I had expected odds for Patrick closer to +700. So, I’ll take the value at +1000 in a “REVENGE GAME” after playing with Denver from 2018 to 2021.
Verdict: Tim Patrick +1000 | Marvin Mims +600
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Steelers vs. Lions
Although I’m betting on QB Aaron Rodgers to throw an interception this week, the only Steeler I want in this matchup is WR DK Metcalf.
Facing the Lions, who play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, Metcalf can exploit this mismatch since he can beat man coverage over the top or run past the zone coverages with his speed.
The Lions defense hasn’t really stopped anyone this season, and with 20 TDs allowed to WRs this year (31st in NFL), Metcalf could be in line for a big game against a depleted Lions secondary.
Playing at home, Lions TD scorers tend to be extremely steamed with value difficult to pinpoint.
Facing a Steelers defense that plays man coverage and single-high safety at top-seven rates, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has easily the best matchup, which is why he’s -115 to score.
The only Lion where you might have some slight value this week is WR Jameson Williams because once you get past Amon-Ra, Jamo can easily take the top off on this Steelers defense that might not be able to get as much pressure on Jared Goff with TJ Watt still out.
Verdict: DK Metcalf +180 | Jameson Williams +155
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Raiders vs. Texans
I’m running it back with Texans rookie WR Jayden Higgins to score a TD this matchup. I know he’s been streaky, as he only has four TDs in 14 games, but he’s still the WR2 in this offense and running almost as many routes as WR Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz.
The Raiders play a ton of zone and single-high safety, and that bodes well for Higgins, who has a higher target rate against both of those coverages.
QB Geno Smith is back this week, and that likely helps a bit for the Raiders, but against the Texans, this could be a beatdown for the Las Vegas offense.
By default, I’m just going to go with TE Brock Bowers and pray.
Bowers is still going to see high-leverage targets if the Raiders can get into scoring range, and while the Texans have been tough against TEs, they have allowed some scores when facing higher-end talent like Trey McBride and Tyler Warren.
Given the high likelihood of a Texans blowout and passing frequency likely increasing for Geno Smith, I'm just going to bet on his favorite pass-catcher in Bowers, since he leads the team by a mile in end zone targets despite missing three games.
Verdict: Brock Bowers +250 | Jayden Higgins +320
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