NFL Picks For Sunday: Saints-Lions, Browns-Cowboys, More Week 4 Bets

Chris Raybon, a senior NFL and fantasy football analyst, highlights his favorite Week 4 NFL picks below. He has a 274-214-16 (56.1%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.

Week 4 NFL Picks

Lions +3 vs. Saints

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

Editor's note: ProFootballTalk reported late Saturday night that a Saints player tested positive after the team arrived in Detroit. The test has since been rerun and came back negative. The game will be played as scheduled.

All of a sudden, it’s the Lions who are healthy while the Saints have an injury list longer than any pass Drew Brees has completed this season. Brees will be without top targets Michael Thomas (ankle) and Jared Cook (groin), as well as gaurd Andrus Peat (ankle), while the Lions are expected to get back top cornerback Desmond Trufant (hamstring).

On the other side of the ball, the Lions got No. 1 receiver Kenny Golladay back last week and now face a Saints defense without its top two cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and Janoris Jenkins (shoulder). Golladay and Marvin Jones led the NFL in TD catches last year while playing only half of the year with Matthew Stafford, so those two losses hurt the Saints.

Brees has thrown just three passes beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage this season, and with limited weaponry on offense and a depleted defense, I would be worried about the Saints’ ability to make a comeback if they fall behind. The Saints lost on the road to a team of similar quality, if not worse, two weeks ago to the Raiders, and I would not be surprised to see the Lions pull off the outright win.

I bet the Lions at +4.5 but like them down to +3.

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Jaguars +2.5 at Bengals

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

The Jags suffered a letdown last week, but still rank No. 7 in offensive DVOA and announced that top receiver DJ Chark will return this week. Starting center Brandon Linder (knee) is still out, which is never ideal, but the Bengals are missing defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels.

On offense, the Bengals average the fewest yards per play in the league and could be without Joe Mixon (chest), arguably their most dynamic skill position player. The Jags are more well rested and more efficient on offense.

I bet the Jaguars at +3 but like them down to +1.5.

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Browns-Cowboys Under 56

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

The Cowboys have played to two huge totals the last two weeks, combining with the Falcons for 79 and the Seahawks for 69, but context is needed. Those are two of the league’s best offenses and worst defenses, and the totals still closed lower than the current number for this matchup.

Furthermore, the Cowboys have barely played with a lead this season, which has inflated their pace to outlier levels at 19.88 seconds per play, 4 seconds higher than any other team, according to Football Outsiders. The Cowboys want to play fast, but this will surely come down (no team averaged fewer than 25.05 seconds per play last season).

Cleveland ranks bottom-20 in pace when the score is within 6 and while trailing, and Dallas is getting two key defensive starters back in cornerback Trevon Diggs and defensive lineman Demarcus Lawrence. Per NFL Network’s Bobby Belt, the Cowboys have been tangibly better in terms of yards per play allowed with Lawrence on the field.

This total is currently higher than it closed for Cowboys-Falcons (53.5) and only 1 point below where Cowboys-Seahawks closed (57.5), which is absurd. Even though those games went over, we have to remember that totals represent the median outcome, meaning they would likely fall above/below those numbers 50% of the time if played out 100 or 1,000 times. This line is an overreaction to both of these teams' recent results (Cleveland has gone over twice in a row as well).

I bet this at 56.5 but would bet it down to 54.5.

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Chargers-Buccaneers Under 42.5

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

The Bucs are second in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA and are up against rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have scored 16, 20 and 16 points against the Bengals, Chiefs and Chargers, which doesn’t bode well for their scoring chances against Tampa.

The Bucs are down wide receivers Chris Godwin (hamstring) and running back Leonard Fournette (ankle), and it could be a grind for them against a Chargers defense that allowed point totals of 13, 23 and 21, with the 23 coming by way of the Chiefs in overtime.

This sets up a struggle where both teams are more likely than not to go under their scoring expectation.

I bet this at 43 but like it down to 42.

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