NFL Betting System: Find Value With Underdogs in Preseason Week 4

Thursday’s football slate is loaded. The college football season begins in earnest with 16 games featuring No. 1 Clemson and three other top 25 programs.

There is also Week 4 of the NFL preseason, but bettors have barely noticed.

We are tracking at least 1,000 tickets on seven of tonight's college football games. Only Vikings-Bills is receiving the same kind of action. Recreational gamblers are treating college football as a shiny new toy while ignoring these exhibition games, and that is a mistake.

There is money to be made betting the final preseason games!

One simple strategy is to wager on the underdogs. The NFL preseason builds to Week 3 when starters get the most snaps. Week 4 is an afterthought and teams are more likely to go through the motions hoping to avoid injuries before the season begins, which leads to value on the dogs.

Since 2005, underdogs in Week 4 have gone 112-98-8 (53.3%) against the spread (ATS) according to Bet Labs. This same approach applies to all underdogs outside of Week 3 as motivation varies among players and coaches.

We know taking the points is a smart play but what is the optimal strategy? Follow the line movement.

When the line moves in the direction (+3 to +2) of the underdogs, these teams have gone 123-91-7 (57.5%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $2,788 following this strategy.

On Thursday, four teams have become smaller underdogs. I’ll be betting each to cover.

Thursday Matches

• Indianapolis Colts (+4 to +3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7 p.m. ET)
• New York Giants (+3.5 to +3) at New England Patriots (7:30 p.m. ET)
• Arizona Cardinals (+3 to +2) at Denver Broncos (9 p.m. ET)
• Oakland Raiders (+3 to +2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (10 p.m. ET)