NFL Betting Tip: A Profitable Over/Under Strategy for Week 7

NFL Betting Tip: A Profitable Over/Under Strategy for Week 7 article feature image
Credit:

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Teddy Bridgewater.

  • Sunday's Saints vs. Bears (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) matchup offers the lowest total (38) of NFL Week 7.
  • Using our Bet Labs data, we detail a profitable over/under betting system for Bears vs. Saints, and three other Week 7 matchups.

The Saints-Bears total of 38 is the lowest in Week 7. At the time of writing, 68% of tickets are on the under. Oddsmakers and bettors are expecting a low-scoring game.

That makes senses as both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. The defenses have also been solid to start the season, as the Bears are allowing 13.8 ppg (third in the NFL) and the Saints are giving up 20.3 ppg (11th).


Odds as of Thursday at 10 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


The total opened 39.5 and is decreasing with heavy action on the under, but is there reason to think this game can go over the total? Or should bettors follow the line movement?

For starters, history says the over is a smart play. Three conditions make for a good over bet:

  • Low total: It is just easier for a game to go over if fewer points are required
  • Non-division game: Less familiarity between opponents
  • No wind: Windy weather impacts the passing and kicking games, which lowers scoring

Since 2003, it has been profitable to bet the over in low-total, non-division games that don’t feature windy weather.

Following this strategy, over bettors have cashed 55% of their tickets, returning a profit of $9,432 for a $100 gambler.

It is not just history that points toward the over. Our Bets Labs simulations have this total at 45.6 points, which makes this one of the best over bets in Week 7.

Want more action? Saints-Bears isn’t the only game matching this system on Sunday.

Week 7 System Matches:

  • Bengals-Jaguars (1 p.m. ET, CBS): over 43.5
  • Redskins-49ers (1 p.m. ET, FOX): over 41
  • Saints-Bears (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): over 38
  • Titans-Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): over 40