NFL Conference Championship Game Referees: How to Bet Based on Prior Trends
NFL Conference Championship Game Referees: How to Bet Based on Prior Trends
The Action Network has combed through mounds of referee data to give you the most pertinent trends that bettors should know heading into this weekend's NFL Championship Games. The following refs will head up Sunday's two games:
- Chiefs vs. Ravens: Shawn Smith
- Lions vs. 49ers: Clete Blakeman
Here are the most relevant betting trends associated with these referees in these specific matchups, thanks to our data guru Evan Abrams.
Chiefs vs. Ravens
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +156 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -186 |
The Ravens are 6-1 on the moneyline but 3-4 ATS with Shawn Smith as the head referee. That includes a 2-0 record straight up and an 0-2 ATS record at home.
That's a general trend with Smith as referee. Underdogs seem to lose constantly — but tend to cover. Dogs are 28-65-1 all-time. A $100 per game bettor would have lost $1,906, which is the sixth-worst mark of all refs.
However, underdogs are 49-40-5 ATS (55%), including a 8-5-2 mark this season and 34-27-3 (56%) the last four seasons.
In addition, road teams are 52-36-5 (59%) ATS with Smith as ref. He's the 6th-best ref for road teams. Teams away from home went 9-3-2 ATS with Smith this season.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Referee: Shawn Smith
Lions vs. 49ers
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
Lions vs. 49ers referee: Clete Blakeman
The Lions have covered three straight games with Blakeman dating back to 2021 — Dan Campbell is 3-0 ATS. Goff is 6-2-1 ATS — dating back to his time with the Rams — with Blakeman as ref.
But on the flip side, the 49ers have won four straight and two straight ATS with Blakeman at the helm. That's a stark contrast to the 2010s, when the 49ers were 0-9 ATS with Blakeman as ref.
Blakeman led games have leaned towards underdogs, going 119-100-5 (54%) ATS. A blind, $100 per game bettor would be up $1,327 over that timespan, including a 30-19 (61%) ATS mark the last three seasons.
Underdogs are also 9-3 ATS in playoff games with Blakeman.
Meanwhile, the under is 8-4 in Blakeman's 12 playoff games. His games have gone 10-5 on the under and 28-21 the last three seasons.
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