Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 13.
NFL Interception Props for Week 13
- Sam Darnold to Throw an Interception (-105; FanDuel)
- Kirk Cousins to Throw an Interception (+160; FanDuel)
Sam Darnold to Throw an Interception (-105)
The Seahawks and Sam Darnold are one of the feel-good stories in the NFL.
The former Vikings QB has started to rack up the turnovers, however, with 10 interceptions and one disastrous showing vs the Rams when he had four.
Now, I’m not going to bank on Darnold having multiple turnovers again, but if he is “seeing ghosts” again, what better time to bet him to throw an interception than against his former team?
The Vikings only have three interceptions this season, but Brian Flores' defense should be pretty familiar with Darnold after facing him in practice all of last season.
Minnesota still does one thing well, and that’s generate pressure (second in the NFL) and blitz at the highest rate. The Vikings should be able to get after Darnold and force him to make quick decisions with their zone defense; his turnover-worthy-play rate is equal opportunity this season with half coming from pressure and the other half when having a clean pocket.
The Seahawks are well-positioned to weather the storm if Darnold throws an early turnover. At -105, I had expected odds closer to -120, given that he has thrown a pick in three straight home games and seven in his last five games overall.
Kirk Cousins to Throw an Interception (+160)
We bet on Kirk Cousins to throw an interception last week facing the Saints, and while it wasn’t an “easy” cash, it did come through by the middle of the second quarter.
Now, we’re seeing Cousins and the Falcons travel to the East Coast to face the Jets, and the odds for him to throw an interception have jumped the shark! It’s up to +165 now — regardless of how poor the Jets' pass defense has been, we bet a Cousins interception when it’s huge plus money.
Cousins has been a turnover machine in a Falcons uniform. There’s no other true way to describe it.
In 14 games last season, he threw 16 interceptions with a pick in 10-of-14 games. I know sportsbooks know this too, but the odds have simply overcorrected too much to factor in potential weather and the likelihood of less pass attempts from Cousins.
The turnover-worthy-play rate last year alone was mind-boggling because he was throwing most of his interceptions when he wasn’t blitzed, with 80% of his TWPs coming in that spot. Even the eye test of the power on his throws wasn’t materializing, leading to defenders jumping routes, which is why he eventually got benched for Michael Penix Jr.
If you’re not a believer of the Jets defense, I get it. They’re the only team in the NFL yet to force an interception this season — but the positive luck has to swing their way at some point because they rank 20th in total passes defended (46), and the 12 teams below them have all forced at least three interceptions this season. If there were ever a get-right spot for the Jets defense, it’s this game.
