Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 14.
NFL Interception Props for Week 14
- Daniel Jones to Throw an Interception (+110; bet365)
- Caleb Williams to Throw an Interception (+126; FanDuel)
Daniel Jones to Throw an Interception (+110)
The Colts have been a great story this season with the resurgence of quarterback Daniel Jones. However, I think he'll throw an interception this week vs. the Jaguars.
Jones only has seven interceptions this season in 12 games, but this matchup against Jacksonville doesn’t bode well for his passing upside.
The Jaguars defense has been pretty solid against the run this year, ranking first in total rushing yards allowed and third in rushing touchdowns (7).
Although the Colts aren’t a top-10 team in rushing attempts, it’s safe to say the offense goes through RB Jonathan Taylor. If he can’t be as successful, this means "Dimes" is going to need to throw, and that could be costly.
Jacksonville ranks second in total passes defended (72) to go with 13 interceptions. The Jaguars also rank fifth in INT per dropback at 2.9%, which means they’ve been very opportunistic if opposing QBs are making mistakes.
Jones is already dealing with a leg injury, which should minimize his scrambling ability and make him throw more from the pocket.
Finally, most of Jones’ turnover-worthy plays this season have stemmed from how he throws from a clean pocket, with 12-of-17 TWPs coming in that scenario.
Well, the Jags are bottom-10 in pressure rate per dropback and bottom 10 in sacks, so I think the Jaguars will play a lot of zone, stop the run, force Jones to throw when nobody is open, and turn him over.
With this being a divisional road game that could decide the AFC South division, let’s take "Dimes" to buckle under the pressure and throw a pick.
Caleb Williams to Throw an Interception (+126)
I know we’re very excited about the Bears' resurgence and the opportunity to take down a division rival like the Packers, but this game has a Caleb Williams interception written all over it.
The prop is +126 this week on the road at Lambeau Field, and this matchup might be tough for Williams to stay turnover-free.
The Packers haven’t generated a lot of interceptions this season, with only six in 13 games. Some of that is circumstantial, because their defense can still get pressure and sack the quarterback. The Packers rank ninth in pressure rate per dropback while also ranking in the bottom five in blitz rate per dropback.
For Williams, that’s a terrible match and has been a bit of his kryptonite this year — his turnover-worthy plays mostly come from when he’s not blitzed, with 10-of-13 in that spot.
Another factor is that it is a road game, with four of his five interceptions this season coming away from Chicago.
If the Packers can be tough against the run and force Williams to improvise and be a hero, then the probability of an interception increases exponentially.
