Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No), and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
In 2025, we’re seeing far fewer quarterbacks with plus-odds to throw an interception, with only seven heading into Week 4. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus-odds.
Here are my two NFL interception props for Week 4:
NFL Interception Props for Week 4
- Bryce Young to Throw an Interception (-115, bet365)
- Lamar Jackson to Throw an Interception(+150, bet365)
Bryce Young to Throw an Interception (-115)
Each year of the last two seasons, we’ve come to expect the Panthers to improve on offense, but a big issue for them is the development of quarterback Bryce Young and him reducing his turnovers.
Well, he had three interceptions in the first two games (both losses) and while he was able to contain himself last week, I think the interception prop market has moved too far on Young.
So, I’m betting him to throw an interception against the Patriots this week.
Young’s INT odds have ranged from -140 (Week 1) to -125 (Week 3), and moving to -115 against the Patriots is a perfect spot to fade the Panthers' QB.
Through three games, his turnover-worthy-play rate has nearly tripled when facing pressure and the blitz. He’s one of three QBs (Bo Nix, Geno Smith) to rank in the top-five in TWP rate when seeing pressure AND when kept clean in the pocket.
The Patriots' defense had done its job this season creating turnovers and making plays under Mike Vrabel.
The Pats have forced the opposing QB to throw an interception in each game, while also ranking in the top-10 in pressure rate per dropback, which could lead to some unruly throws from Young.
Another reason I like this is the Patriots pass defense hasn’t really been lights out either with five passing TDs allowed.
The Panthers should be able to sustain some drives which should give Young more opportunities to throw into coverage.
Lamar Jackson to Throw an Interception (+150)
This is when you kind of need to take a leap of faith, because when you go big-game hunting for interception props, there might not be a ton of data to support your care.
But fear not, we’re riding this one because of price, and I like Lamar Jackson to throw an interception against the Chiefs in Week 4.
Through three games, Jackson has yet to throw an interception, and going back to the start of last season, he’s thrown four total.
However, we’ve seen the Ravens' passing game have some miscues through three games of the season, and all three of his turnover-worthy plays have come when he was kept clean in the pocket.
This could bode well for the Chiefs, as they only get pressure on 18.1% of opponent dropbacks, which is below league-average.
From a pricing standpoint, we’re also getting a bit of an edge here, as Jackson topped out at +135 to throw an interception last week against the Lions, and we watched Detroit CB Brian Branch drop an easy interception in his hands.
Jackson is also first in the NFL in deep-throw percentage, and I think if he gets happy feet and tries to burn the Chiefs downfield, it sets up well for an interception.
