NFL Live Betting Week 3: How We’re Live Betting Thursday Night Football
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Bosa tackles Daniel Jones.
We had a good run of compelling Thursday Night Football games to start the 2023 NFL season — a run that unfortunately comes to an end in Week 3. The Giants travel to San Francisco, where they're double-digit underdogs against the 49ers.
Without Saquon Barkley — who was ruled out for Week 3 — it's hard to expect much from the Giants offense. Still, we may be able to find some live angles once this game kicks off, with two teams returning most of their coaching staff and offensive personnel from last season.
Thursday Night Football Live Betting Scenario to Watch For
Second Half Unders (Assuming a 49ers Lead) — LIVE BET MADE, UNDER 41.5 (-115, DraftKings)
The Giants' first drive of the third quarter stalled out, making the "49ers lead" scenario we were targeting a bit more locked in. With San Francisco playing fairly conservatively — and poorly — on offense even before the commanding lead, we'll take the under at 41.5 (-115) on DraftKings.
Here's how we prepared to live bet this game before kickoff:
This is the standard plan of attack when we expect games to be a blowout. Broadly speaking, the leading team switches into ball-control mode, keeping the opposing offense off the field and shortening the game.
The 49ers followed that approach to a tee last season (and so far this year), with their average time per snap rising above 30 seconds when leading by seven or more points. The NFL average is roughly two seconds quicker than that. Giants data is a bit skewed so far this season — thanks to giving up early in their Week 1 40-0 loss to the Cowboys — but last season they played slightly slower than average when trailing.
We also expect San Francisco to have no problem controlling the game if they keep it on the ground. The Giants have the league's worst run defense by DVOA so far. On the other side of the ball, it's hard to expect much offense from the Giants. They're without their best weapon in Saquon Barkley, and the 49ers are a top-five pass defense.
Of course, there's a bit of a risk that San Francisco runs the ball too well once they get their lead, so we should be picky with the line here. The pregame total is 44, and we'll be holding out for a significantly higher number AND a 49ers lead in or around half time.
If that doesn't happen, we might consider taking the 49ers to cover, even at a worse number than the pregame 10.5. Daniel Jones and the Giants have been fairly mistake-prone when playing from behind, and the 49ers could continue to score even while keeping things on the ground. We'll be targeting scenarios where the live spread is within seven or so of the current 49ers lead.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
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