NFL Luck Rankings Week 11: Bills Enter Bottom 3 After MNF Loss
Getty Images. Pictured: Matt LaFleur (left), Sean McDermott (center) and Arthur Smith.
Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 11.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-8-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-62-6 (62.0%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 11.
NFL Week 11 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35.34% | |
| 2 | 23.53% | |
| 3 | 16.04% | |
| 4 | 13.35% | |
| 5 | 12.71% | |
| 6 | 12.2% | |
| 7 | 9.19% | |
| 8 | 7.83% | |
| 9 | 7.76% | |
| 10 | 7.73% | |
| 11 | 6.18% | |
| 12 | 5.4% | |
| 13 | 4.21% | |
| 14 | 0.63% | |
| 15 | 0.31% | |
| 16 | -0.66% | |
| 17 | -1.81% | |
| 18 | -2.87% | |
| 19 | -4.87% | |
| 20 | -5.54% | |
| 21 | -6.23% | |
| 22 | -7.36% | |
| 23 | -8.96% | |
| 24 | -10.16% | |
| 25 | -10.83% | |
| 26 | -11.7% | |
| 27 | -12.2% | |
| 28 | -12.59% | |
| 29 | -14.7% | |
| 30 | -16.01% | |
| 31 | -16.57% | |
| 32 | -17.24% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers racked up their sixth one-score win of the year and were technically a bit unlucky as the Expected Score was 26-19 in their favor. However, Expected Score can't account for the refs missing what appeared to be a backward lateral that would have gone for a Green Bay touchdown but was instead ruled an incomplete pass.
Also, Packers kicker Anders Carlson also had an extra point blocked that crucially set them four points behind instead of three, forcing the Packers to go for touchdowns late instead of settling for possibly a game-tying field goal. That led to two late Jordan Love interceptions in the end zone. That's especially important for those who had Packers +3.5.
Thus, the Steelers, despite the small bit of unluckiness, remain at the top as a 6-3 team that has been out-gained in every game but should be a 3-6 team by Expected Score.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles remain at number two after their Week 10 bye week.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals lost to the Houston Texans but were lucky to not lose by more, as Expected Score pinned this as a 31-23 game in Houston's favor. That's just enough luck to keep Cincinnati ahead of a new fourth-place team.
4. Denver Broncos
We've expanded the lucky list to four this week to include Monday night's winning team. The Broncos' 24-22 win over the Bills was only slightly lucky, as Expected Score had this flipped the other way with the same scoreline of 24-22 but in favor of the Bills.
The Broncos' 39% offensive success rate would have been unsustainable for scoring the number of points they did if they weren't gifted immediate field-goal position twice by Bills turnovers. On both those drives, the Broncos ran three plays and then kicked a field goal, showing how anemic their offense can be at times.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Buffalo Bills
The Bills enter the bottom three for the first time after their loss to Denver on Monday night. It took four offensive turnovers by the Bills for the Broncos to pull off the upset by just two points.
The Bills had a 51% offensive success rate compared to Denver's aforementioned 39%, but their unsuccessful plays were nearly worst-case scenarios a handful of times.
31. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay drops a spot after the loss to the Steelers, although this is just as much about other unlucky teams winning (Chicago and Cleveland) as it is about the Packers losing.
32. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons' 25-23 loss to Arizona was a bit flattering for Atlanta. The Expected Score of 29-18 paints a truer picture, making Atlanta lucky losers. That said, the Falcons' Expected Score Win% dropped less than their actual win percentage, so they lost a fraction of a percentage point in Luck%, keeping them on the bottom line after 10 weeks.
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