Updated NFL MVP Odds: Jared Goff Challenging Patrick Mahomes

Oct 03, 2018 3:32 PM EDT
  • Following his massive game against the Vikings, Jared Goff has jumped from +1400 to +500 in the MVP odds race.
  • Patrick Mahomes is still the favorite, but has fallen from +300 to +400 after an "average" game.
  • The Bears are finally getting some recognition after their 3-1 start, as both Mitch Trubisky and Khalil Mack have gone from off the board to +3300.

Patrick Mahomes … just one touchdown pass? You think that’s how you take home the MVP? You can’t do that just a few days after Jared Goff, quarterback of the current Super Bowl favorite, goes off for a video game-esque 465 yards and five touchdowns.

Goff began the year at +4000, which is actually a worse price than the one for Mahomes, who had played only one game before this season. However, I think it’s safe to say that those who bet on either QB before the season are entering Week 5 with smiles on their faces, though.

Here are the updated odds from Bovada:

Risers

Jared Goff: +1400 to +500 (+10% Implied probability)

Goff and the Rams are putting up points like there’s no tomorrow, trailing the Chiefs by only five points scored on the season. Los Angeles didn’t need to go full throttle in its first three games, but we finally got to see what it looked like taking on one of the most talented defenses in the league against Minnesota.

Goff has overtaken Mahomes in terms of passer rating, has thrown for more yards and has completed 72.4% of his passes. Mahomes has the touchdown lead by three, but at this point of the season, you really can’t say anything bad about either candidate.

Mitchell Trubisky and Khalil Mack: N/A to +3300 (+2.9%)

When in Rome

Most would have been surprised if Trubisky threw for five TDs in a game this season, let alone one half. His six-touchdown performance quadrupled his season total and topped his career high by four. Before this season, he hadn’t thrown two touchdown passes in a game …

Meanwhile, Mack is looking like a decent player. Perhaps one a team shouldn’t trade away, but what do I know?

Five sacks, four forced fumbles, a pick six … I could go on forever, baby. Mack is legit, and the Bears are now -175 to make the playoffs.

Joe Flacco: +4000 to +2000 (+2.4% IP)

Did someone say elite? Flacco has good all-around stats this season after laying an egg in 2017. Further helping his case is the fact that the Ravens could very well be on their way to an AFC North title.

Perhaps the Steelers’ dysfunction deserves more merit for that than Flacco, but what’s the difference?

Fallers

Patrick Mahomes: +300 to +400 (-5% IP)

Poor, poor Patrick. Guy goes out, throws for 300 yards and a TD, runs for a TD and has yet to throw an interception this season. He even spiced things up and started throwing lefty to try to win over the fans and oddsmakers to prove his value.

Still, it was not enough. With Goff on the rise, odds for others have to move in the other direction. Unfortunately for Mahomes, his odds had to fall.

Aaron Rodgers: +600 to +800 (-3.2% IP)

Rodgers had a so-so game in the Packers’ easy win over the Bills. He threw for nearly 300 yards, but just one touchdown to go along with a pick.

Rodgers’ 76.9 passer rating was easily his worst of the season, and with Goff making such a big rise, Rodgers, like Mahomes, had to take a hit on the odds list.

Cam Newton: +1600 +2800 (-2.5%)

Newton was basically non-existent last Sunday as he didn’t account for any touchdowns, rush for any yards or even attempt a pass. Oh yeah … the Panthers didn’t even play.

Well, sorry to those folks who took him at +1600 last week because apparently taking part in a bye week is a big no-no in NFL MVP betting markets.

Credit:

Sep 27, 2018; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) walks down the tunnel to the field to warm up before the game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money
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