Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
- After an odds drop last week, Patrick Mahomes is once again the favorite to win the NFL MVP award.
- Matt Ryan also saw an odds jump from Week 7, while a collection of quarterbacks, including Tom Brady, saw their odds fall.
Welp, so much for Patrick Mahomes’ falling MVP stock. After taking a hit down to +700 after last week, the Kansas City QB’s odds are once again tops in the league following Week 7 and have even reached a season high.
To be honest, I’m still not sure why his odds fell so much after he and the Chiefs scored 40 points at New England, but hopefully you were able to take advantage of that number while it lasted.
Here’s where the odds stand:
Patrick Mahomes: +700 to +270 (12.5% to 27.03% implied probability)
Mahomes threw for four touchdowns on Sunday night, his fourth four-touchdown game of the season. Now with 22 passing touchdowns, he’s on pace for 50 if he plays all 16 games.
Matt Ryan: +6600 to +2000 (1.49% to 4.76% IP)
Lost in the Falcons’ 3-4 start is the fact that Ryan is leading the NFL in passing yards. He’s also posting a 15-2 touchdown to interception ratio, and if the Falcons can continue building upon their two-game win streak, his odds should only continue to climb.
However, if you are looking to bet him, I’d advise waiting until next week. Atlanta has a bye this weekend, which could lead to a better payout as the hype wears off.
Tom Brady: +600 to +1200 (14.29% to 7.69% IP)
For the first time all season, Brady is outsided 10-1 to win MVP. He’s thrown an uncharacteristically high seven interceptions this season, and ranks 10th and 12th in completion percentage and passing yards, respectively.
Aaron Rodgers: +700 to +1000 (12.5% to 9.09% IP)
Let this be exhibit A as to why you shouldn’t bet player futures preceding a bye week. Despite having the past weekend off, Rodgers still managed a significant drop in MVP odds.
He’s currently listed as a 9.5-point dog against the Rams on Sunday, which would be the most points he’s been given in his career.
Joe Flacco: +2200 to +4000 (4.35% to 2.44% IP)
Flacco’s odds might look a bit different had Justin Tucker hit an extra point at the end of this past Sunday’s game. Still, it hasn’t been the most impressive year from Flacco.
While his 2,067 yards are fifth in the league, he’s tied for 15th in passing TDs and is 27th in completion percentage.
Carson Wentz: +2500 to +6600 (3.85% to 1.49% IP)
Wentz’s Eagles blew a 17-0 lead on Sunday, bringing their record back below .500 on the year, which is the driving reason for his low odds.
His individual numbers are still decent as he’s thrown just one pick through six games and is averaging 300 yards per game.