Broncos vs. Bills Odds

A Bills and Broncos game just feels like December football. It feels like John Elway and Jim Kelly, like snow-covered fans and endless-lost Super Bowls. The forecast in Denver for Saturday looks clear and sunny for now, but it won't feel quite right without at least a few flurries in the air.

The Broncos finally got the monkey of their back with a couple Super Bowl wins after all that losing, and Bills fans are starting to believe this is the team and quarterback that can do it for them. Buffalo is 10-3 now, and Josh Allen is getting sleeper buzz for NFL MVP with only a few weeks to go.

Can Buffalo keep the good times rolling in Denver? I like the Bills' chances of covering as road favorites. Now let's break down why and how.

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Buffalo Bills

Few quarterbacks in NFL history have improved at the rate and amount Allen has since 2018. Allen barely even looked like an NFL quarterback as a rookie. He has improved all along the way, now he's a possible top five-guy, winning games on his own many weeks.

Allen has 34 touchdowns this season, six of them on the ground, and only nine interceptions. He's hitting the deep ball, he's accurate on short looks, and he's still bowling guys over when he runs. Allen has gotten plenty of help from his receivers, too — especially Stefon Diggs, who has been as good as any NFL wideout this fall.

And the mastermind of it all has been offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who continues to scheme up sheer brilliance. Daboll has something new every week and continues to make incredible in-game adjustments as Allen plays along.

The Allen-Diggs-Daboll trifecta has been shredding poor opposing defenses.

The rest of this Bills team is more average than great. The run game is fine. The defense is okay, albeit disappointing compared to preseason expectation. The special teams have been terrific. But really, this is all about Buffalo's passing attack.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are technically still in the playoff hunt at 5-8, but their season is effectively over. They remain stuck in no man's land — not good enough to compete for anything real, but not bad enough to tank for a top draft pick and a real quarterback.

The Broncos offense has been pretty poor all season. They rank at or near the bottom of the league in most offensive metrics, and Drew Lock does not look like the quarterback of the present or the future. Denver has turned it over in every game and scored 21 or fewer points nine times. The Broncos did hang 32 on the Panthers last week, but Carolina's defense is not great.

Denver's defense has been its strength.

The Broncos rank 13th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, and they've been especially strong against the pass, in the top quarter of the league. That pass defense kept them surprisingly close against the Chiefs a couple weeks ago, and it theoretically matches strength-for-strength against the Bills.

There's just one problem: The health of the pass defense is in shambles.

Pro Football Doc grades Denver's pass defense health as a D-plus, barely above a failing grade. Star corner A.J. Bouye has been suspended for the rest of the season due to PEDs, and Denver is missing five corners, along with Von Miller and Jurrell Casey. The pass defense we'll see Saturday has little relation to the one that's been good most of the season.

Bills-Broncos Pick

The Bills are riding high after big back-to-back primetime wins over the 49ers and Steelers, and this is an obvious letdown spot on a short week against a team that usually shows up.

But that injury margin could end up the difference here. A healthy Broncos pass defense might have kept Allen and Diggs in check to keep this close and ugly, trending quickly toward the under. But with all those injuries in Denver's secondary, this may shape up instead as another strong argument for Allen's quietly building MVP campaign.

The way Allen is throwing the ball right now, Denver is simply too banged up to have much chance of stopping him.

At under a touchdown, Buffalo is a good bet to win and cover. And if Denver does keep it close for a half, don't be afraid of doubling down. Daboll has been a genius at adjustments, and Denver just doesn't have the horses in the secondary to hold up all game.

I'll play the Bills up to -6.5, but be sure to use our NFL odds page to shop real-time lines and lock in the best. I'll also jump back in to double down at a similar spot if the game is close heading into the second half. Allen is just too much against all these Broncos injuries.

Pick: Bills -6