Eagles vs. Giants Odds, Picks, Predictions: How To Bet Sunday’s Over/Under with Jake Fromm Starting In Week 16
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
- Eagles vs. Giants odds list New York as a double-digit underdog with Jake Fromm as its starting quarterback.
- So where's the betting value on this NFL Week 16 matchup? Our analyst breaks makes his picks and predictions on the over/under below.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Parx. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
Following a strong divisional win earlier this week against the Washington Football Team at home, the Philadelphia Eagles look to continue their success within the NFC East when they face the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon.
The Eagles (7-7) used the ground game to their advantage last week against Washington, sailing to a comfortable 27-17 win in a game they needed to stay in contention in the NFC playoff picture. The Giants (8-6), meanwhile, predictably struggled with quarterback Daniel Jones out again, taking a 37-21 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on the road.
In a game between two divisional opponents that know each other extremely well, where should we be looking for value in this Week 16 NFC East matchup?
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Giants vs. Eagles Matchup
|Giants Offense||DVOA Rank||Eagles Defense|
|Giants Defense||DVOA Rank||Eagles Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Giants Keep Gianting
With Daniel Jones ruled out for the season with a neck injury, a bit of a late season quarterback controversy has emerged in New York between journeyman Mike Glennon and second-year QB Jake Fromm. This week’s starter has yet to be officially announced, but there is a palpable call from fans to give the kid a shot this week in Philadelphia. Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post reported Friday that N.Y. plans to start Fromm this week.
The Giants offense was anemic last week with Glennon under center, accounting for just six points in the loss. Fromm came on in the fourth quarter and brought some life to the offense, commanding the huddle with ease and throwing for 82 yards on just twelve attempts. He drove the Giants down the field into the red zone, but they were unable to score.
With Glennon under center, this Giants offense is averaging just 12 points per game since Jones’ injury, a number that should improve if Fromm plays anywhere near league average if given the nod. Fromm was very effective in his last full season with Georgia, throwing for 2,850 yards, 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions in his junior season before declaring for the NFL draft.
Regardless of who starts, the matchup won’t be particularly difficult. This Eagles defense comes in ranked just 23rd in Total DVOA and 24th in Pass DVOA thus far, so both signal callers should have ample opportunities to try and exploit the matchup. That said, given how this unit has played over the last few weeks, expectations should surely be tempered.
Eagles Finding Themselves
Coming off arguably his best game of the season last week, quarterback Jalen Hurts will look to continue that momentum at home against the Giants. Last time out, Hurts completed 77% of his passes for 296 yards and a touchdown, while also contributing 38 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground.
The Eagles offense contributed an impressive 238 rushing yards in the victory and will almost certainly continue their run-first approach against this Giants 29th-ranked rush DVOA. Expect the Eagles to once again turn to a three-headed monster on the ground that includes Hurts, Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard.
The Giants defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses of-late, allowing an average of 26 points per game over their last three appearances. With this trio of rushers averaging 5.8 rushing yards per attempt last week against a much stronger Washington Football Team unit (11th in Rush DVOA), I expect a barrage of chunk plays for the Eagles offense in this one.
While it won’t be the primary focus of the offense, Hurts also showed last week that he’s very capable of making smart passes when necessary. He only threw 26 times last week, but his 77% completion rate illustrates that he’s willing to take what the defense gives him and keep defenses honest against the run. This bodes well for their ability to score frequently again this week against the Giants.
Eagles vs. Giants Predictions
Given how poorly the Giants have played since Jones’ injury, it’s no surprise to see a total of just 40.5 points in this game. Not only have they failed to sustain many drives with Glennon under center (outside of late, garbage-time drives once the game was far out of reach), they’ll also be without two of their top receiving options in Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney.
That said, Fromm provided an undeniable boost last week for this offense. He should be an improvement over Glennon, even with extremely limited NFL experience under his belt. If the Giants opt to use Glennon for the third consecutive game, expect the ceiling to be similar to the 21 points we saw from this offense last week against the Chargers.
Either way, we won’t need much from the Giants in this one to hit the over. The Eagles should be able to run the ball with ease against this 29th-ranked Giants rush defense, which should lead to ample red-zone opportunities for this offense. The Eagles currently rank 9th in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage with a 62% success rate, so points should should come early and often.
As such, I’m betting on the Eagles to continue their dominance on the ground in this one and for the Giants to do just enough on the other side to bring the over into play here.
Sharp bettors have also found themselves on the over in this Week 16 matchup. While only 28% of tickets are on the over, 47% of the money is on the same side, indicating that sharp money has been wagering on the same result at time of writing (check real-time public betting data here).
I’m taking the over here at the current number of 40.5 and would be comfortable playing it up to 41 if the line were to shift between now and kickoff.
Pick: Over 40.5 | Bet to: Over 41
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