Stuckey’s Favorite Week 6 NFL Picks
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff
Stuckey highlights his favorite NFL picks for Week 6 below.
Let’s run through how he’s betting the Seahawks-Browns, 49ers-Rams and Cowboys-Jets spreads.
Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Browns +1.5 vs. Seahawks
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
As a result of the Browns’ blowout loss, the consensus has now flipped to them being terrible again. But generally speaking, NFL teams are never as good or as bad as they appear in any individual week.
We’ve seen this story with the Browns a few times already this season. After getting smoked in their opener against the Titans, they bounced back with a convincing win over the Jets on Monday Night Football. After losing at home to the Rams in Week 3 with a shorthanded squad, they responded the following week with a win in Baltimore.
To me, these early season results speak to the fact that Cleveland is a young, and not-so-well coached squad that will go through these ups and downs.
The Browns are still a decent AFC team in my book, and should be favored at home against the fraudulent Seahawks. Sure, they’re 4-1, which looks impressive on the surface, but look at Seattle’s wins:
- Week 1: 21-20 home win over a winless Cincinnati team in a game they were out-gained by just under 200 yards
- Week 2: 28-26 road win over the Steelers, who lost Ben Roethlisberger in the first half
- Week 3: Home loss to Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints
- Week 4: 17-point road win at Arizona, but only out-gained Cards by 20 yards
- Week 5: 30-29 home win over the Rams in which a missed field goal was the deciding factor
The one bad thing about this spot is Seattle will have extra rest/prep after a Thursday night game, while Cleveland is coming back from the west coast on a short week. But I can’t pass up the Browns as home dog here.
The Browns have been a mess at times as a result of their offensive line (among other issues), but I’m not as concerned about that group this season — their line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate, but Seattle’s defensive line ranks 25th in that same category and 21st in adjusted line yards (a measure of run defense effectiveness, per Football Outsiders).
Baker Mayfield should have time in the pocket (assuming he doesn’t bail) to find his receivers downfield against a suspect Seahawks secondary. Just take a look at each respective team’s net yards despite a tougher schedule so far:
Browns: +0.3 (6.2 for vs. 5.9 against) | 12-11 opponent record
Seahawks: +0.2 (6.3 for vs. 6.1 against) | 9-15-1 opponent record
Give me the Browns at anything plus money.
Rams -3 vs. 49ers
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
This is a textbook buy low/sell high spot offering line value in the weekly overreaction game we see play out in the NFL each week.
After starting 2-0, the Rams looked ugly in Cleveland on national TV and then dropped two in a row — one as a home favorite against Tampa Bay and then last Thursday night against Seattle in a game they should’ve won if Greg Zuerlein makes a kick he generally makes.
Meanwhile, everyone seems to have crowned the 49ers NFC champs after they obliterated the Browns on Monday night. Not much changed from my perspective in that game; it was a dream spot for San Fran, which was off a bye and catching a banged up Browns team coming across country for a second straight road game after beating their rival Ravens.
But what exactly have the 49ers done so far? Beat the Bucs to open the season on a day when Jameis Winston threw two picks? And then follow that up with wins over three sub-.500 teams in the AFC North? Color me not as impressed as everyone else.
Look, I think the 49ers are a very solid team and a legit contender in the NFC, but the love has gone too far — especially as they play on a short week against a Rams team that’s had extra time to prep for the matchup after playing last Thursday night.
San Francisco will also have to grapple with losing one of their most important offensive pieces to injury in Kyle Juszczyk. He’s a key cog in Kyle Shanahan’s zone run scheme, is an excellent blocker (especially when it comes to picking up blitzes) and makes an impact in the passing game.
The 49ers use 21 personnel (two backs and one tight end) more than any team in the NFL and it’s their most successful formation. If opposing defenses stay in base, they throw. And if they stay with an extra defensive back, they run it.
Losing Juszczyk, the only fullback on the roster as I’m writing this, will require Shanahan to rework a lot of the offense. But that’s again where the short week really hurts the 49ers.
I took -3 (-115) when it popped in the market and would take anything at -4 or better. At -3, it assumes these teams are dead even. And that’s just not the case in my opinion, especially when you account for the favorable spot for LA and the key SF injuries.
Jets +7 vs. Cowboys
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
I’m not a Sam Darnold truther by any stretch, but I think he could be a solid starting quarterback one day with further development. That said, he’s an enormous upgrade over Luke Falk. Darnold can actually throw the ball downfield and gives the Jets offense some semblance of hope.
As a result, I think the line should’ve moved from 9/9.5 to below 7, which mainly stems from not having to play Falk, who you may recall was originally the Jets third-stringer.
And that’s even before factoring in the potential absences of Cowboys offensive tackles. They are two of the best in the business and the best tackle tandem in the NFL for my money. The entire Cowboy offense, from the running game to play action to passing down success, all starts with their elite offensive line. The offense becomes very pedestrian without those two.
I think we’ll see an inspired effort from the winless Jets at home, while the Cowboys may be looking ahead to the Eagles next Sunday night.
The Jets’ defense — which has actually played well lately, all things considered — should also get some help at linebacker with the likely return of Brandon Copeland and Jordan Jenkins, who will help off the edge. They Jets are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, which ranks in the top five league wide.
Darnold gives the offense a chance and I couldn’t pass up taking +7.5 with the home team here in a game I make at least +6.5 before factoring in the potential enormous overtime injuries for Dallas. I’d take anything at +7 or better with the Jets.