NFL Picks for Week 10: Bet or Wait Using Our Luck Rankings Model
Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Gardner Minshew.
Our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- At least 50% lower Luck% in the Luck Rankings.
Overall, these teams are 103-61-6 (62.4%) since the start of the 2018 season against the closing spread, which is how we grade them for consistency.
There were no luck-based matchups in Week 9, meaning unlucky teams meeting at least one criteria remain 7-7-2 ATS on the year. My personal record on luck-based sides, which you can see in the Action App, remains 6-4-1 for the season.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 3.
Luck Totals below -5 went 3-1 to the under last week, are 20-11 (64.5%) to the under this year and 114-77-2 (60%) over the last six years. I went 1-1 last week, as tracked in the Action App, moving me to 4-4 this season on luck-based totals.
Our PRO Report and PRO Projections have helped us consistently get closing line value this year, so we'll keep up with the process as we dive into pass/wait/play for luck games in Week 10.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 10 Games
Packers vs. Steelers (+3)
Packers vs. Steelers is setting off massive luck-based signals.
First, these teams are 29 places apart in the Luck Rankings, putting it well above the threshold. This game also has a Luck Gap of 49.6%, which barely misses out on the second criteria.
However, this late in the season, since luck regresses to the mean, a gap of anything over 30% is significant. Unlucky teams with at least a 30% Luck Gap in Week 10 or later are 42-22-5 ATS (64.5%), and if we narrow this to just road teams, that improves to 24-7-2 (75.8%).
If the Luck Difference is at least 28 places, road teams are 12-2 ATS, including 11-1 after Week 4.
The Steelers have been outgained in all eight of their games and are worse than the Packers in both offensive and defensive success rate, plus defensive explosive play rate.
The one area the Steelers outperform Green Bay is in explosive play rate (9.1% to 7.4%). But even after adjusting for that, the Steelers have been extremely lucky. Six of Pittsburgh's 11 offensive touchdowns have come via explosive plays, a completely unsustainable rate.
I'm happy to back the Pack at +3, but some 3.5s have popped up throughout the week. If any arise, make sure to snag that.
Verdict: Wait for +3.5 and pounce, or bet at +3 if you don't want to wait.
Panthers vs. Bears (38.5)
Primetime unders are hitting at more than a 75% clip in 2023 (22-7), and we have another one to back on Thursday Night Football. In this case, it's also a Luck Under as the Panthers and Bears combine for a Luck Total of -6.8.
Both teams should play well toward the under as the Bears play at the third-slowest pace in neutral situations and 10th slowest among all plays. They are also the fourth-heaviest rushing team as measured both by raw rush percentage, as well as passing rate over expectation (PROE).
The Panthers, meanwhile, should struggle to run against a Bears defense that ranks first in rushing yards per attempt to running backs. That will force Bryce Young to beat them through the air, a tough ask for a rookie who is dead last in aggressiveness and second to last in intended air yards per attempt, according to NextGen stats.
Thus, even through the air, the Panthers are likely going to be eating clock through shorter plays.
The total has been steadily dropping all week so make sure you grab this ASAP before it hits the key number of 37.
Verdict: Bet under 38.5.
Colts vs. Patriots (43.5)
The Luck Total of -11.0 is quite a strong signal to the under here.
The total for this game opened on Sunday evening at the key number of 44 and got pushed down to 43.5 across the board by Monday. However, it's stagnated despite 93% of bets and 94% of money on the under.
The Colts offense only scored 13 points last week against a Panthers defense that's been worse than New England's. The Patriots have the fifth-best defensive rushing DVOA, meaning the Colts will either struggle to move the ball on the ground, where they're typically more efficient, or lean on Gardner Minshew in the passing game.
There's also the travel issue with this game being played in Germany — games overseas tend to lean to the under.
Since money is coming in pretty heavily on the under, I want to get it before it moves further. Thus, I'm with my colleague Anthony Dabbundo on this one, and making this week's luck-based games a perfect 3-for-3 on play now.
Verdict: Bet under 43.5.
Bonus Bet: Colts Lowest Scoring Team on Sunday (+3200)
The Colts are the sixth-most run heavy team in terms of PROE, which means one of two things. Either they’ll be running into a Patriots defense that is fifth in defensive rush DVOA, or the Colts will have to pass more, which is the less efficient facet of their offense.
In addition, the unique combination of the Colts' scoring luck (5.5 more per game than expected) and the Patriots' bad luck allowing points (3.7 more per game than expected) means Indianapolis has a Luck Team Total of -9.25, nearly six full points lower than any other team on Sunday. Arizona has the second lowest at -3.5, but it gets Kyler Murray back at quarterback.
Indianapolis just faced a much worse defense in the Panthers and scored 27 points. However, we have to remember 14 of those came via two Bryce Young pick-sixes. Without those, the Colts score just 13 points.
That would have placed them fifth lowest on last week’s Sunday slate, which included zero points from Clayton Tune under center for the Cardinals, three points from the Brett Rypien-led Rams and six points from Tommy DeVito and the Giants.
Only DeVito is going to be in a repeat spot this week, and if there's any improvement from him, the Colts very well could be in it.
If luck regresses, and Gardner Minshew struggles to pass the ball against a Patriots team that’s already solid against the run, Indianapolis could be in for a long day.
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